Dem
47
GOP
53
DSCC chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) believes in time travel. She wants to take the Democratic Party back 20 years. Forget woke. Forget DEI. But remember that in 2005, in the 109th Senate, the Democrats held one Senate seat in Indiana, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota and two Senate seats in Arkansas, North Dakota and West Virginia. Yup, 13 Senate seats in what are now red states. Check the link above if you don't believe it. Here are the names of the Democratic senators by state: Blanche Lincoln (AR), Mark Pryor (AR), Bill Nelson (FL), Tom Harkin (IA), Evan Bayh (IN), Mary Landrieu (LA), Max Baucus (MT), Byron Dorgan (ND), Kent Conrad (ND), Ben Nelson (NE), Tim Johnson (SD), Jay Rockefeller (WV) and Robert Byrd (WV).
What happened? The country changed somewhat, but the Democrats moved far to the left of the people in dozens of states. Many Democrats used to be prairie populists and won easily in red states on economic issues. To some extent, the change since then was due to a brilliant strategy by Karl Rove to de-emphasize economic issues and run on culture-war issues, but people still care about kitchen-table issues that affect them.
What Gillibrand is proposing is to rerun the 2006 midterms. Then, as now, the Democrats were shut out with a Republican trifecta. But in the 2006 midterms, the Democrats picked up 31 seats in the House and five in the Senate and captured both chambers. In that election, they flipped Republican seats in Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. How did they do it? They recruited culturally conservative candidates who had backgrounds more like GOP candidates but who were with the Democrats on the economic issues. They recruited a sheriff from Indiana, a former NFL quarterback from North Carolina, and an assistant high school football coach from Minnesota. Some of them opposed abortion rights. But they all won, allowing Harry Reid to become majority leader. And they blocked George W. Bush on almost everything.
To win the Senate, especially in red states, Democrats need to recruit candidates that match their states. That means candidates who hold views on hot-button issues that are absolutely anathema to progressives. The question for lefty Democrats is: Would you prefer to have a pure-as-the-driven-snow minority in a Senate that rammed through one Trump appointment after another (especially judges), or a mixed-bag Senate that blocked many of Trump's nominations, his budget, and all his proposed laws? How about a Senate that would hold a weeks-long trial with dozens of witnesses each time Trump was impeached by the House?
What Gillibrand is proposing is to just drop all the culture-war issues (which will displease the progressive wing of the party) and focus on Trump's cuts to the entitlement programs, Trump's massive corruption, and potentially the people vs. the billionaires. All of these fly in red states.
To get a lasting majority, Democrats also need states like Mississippi to turn blue. Mississippi? Yes. The state is 38% Black, and nearly all Black voters in Mississippi are Democrats. That means it is sufficient to peel off roughly 20-25% of the white voters. Could a conservative candidate do that? It would require a lot of voter registration and education, but in a race dominated by kitchen-table issues, Trump's attack on entitlements, and his corruption, maybe it would be doable with the right candidate.
Four potential red states that could be targeted in 2026 are Ohio, Montana, Iowa and Texas. In Ohio, the strongest Democrat is probably former senator Sherrod Brown against an appointed senator. In Montana it is former senator Jon Tester. There are no obvious candidates yet in Iowa or Texas, but Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) has been hurt by her remark that we will all die. The whole campaign could be about her insensitivity and support for gutting Medicaid. In Texas, Republicans might well nominate Ken Paxton, whose corruption rivals Trump's and who was impeached by the Texas House (but escaped conviction). Democrats have rarely had such an easy target in Texas, but they need a candidate who looks good in a cowboy hat and knows how to ride a horse. (V)