Jun.09

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

New Jersey Holds Gubernatorial Primaries Tomorrow

Both major parties are holding gubernatorial primaries tomorrow in New Jersey. In all, 11 candidates—six Democrats and five Republicans—want to move to Trenton, depressing as it is. There are also primaries for local offices, but the governor's mansion is the big prize.

This is the first statewide test of the electorate during Trump v2.0. Will the most anti-Trump candidate win the Democratic primary, or will other (local) factors dominate? How do blue-state Republicans feel about him? Still, New Jersey is an interesting test case. Kamala Harris won the state by 6 points, whereas Joe Biden won it by 16 points in 2020.

This will be the first gubernatorial election under new rules. Up until 2024, county bosses picked their favorite and the ballot design made it easier to vote for the bosses' candidates. Now all the candidates are treated equally. Here are the candidates (with their current polling average):

• Mikie Sherrill (28%): Former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor Sherrill currently represents the affluent NJ-11 district in northeast New Jersey. She is the establishment candidate, with support from the county chairs. She is a moderate but anti-Trump. She is white.
  
  
• Ras Baraka (11%): Newark mayor Ras Baraka, who is Black, has been an adamant opponent of Donald Trump and ICE raids on immigrant communities. He even got himself arrested by ICE and has sued interim U.S. Attorney Alina Habba, Trump's former lawyer, for defamation and false arrest. He is now campaigning as the candidate who will take the fight to Trump. That could influence some undecided voters. He also opposes reopening the private ICE detention facility in Newark. He is the leftiest and most strident of the candidates.
  
  
• Steve Fulop (11%): A former Marine and Goldman Sachs banker, Steve Fulop has been mayor of Jersey City for over a decade. He is running as the anti-establishment candidate. He wants to destroy the New Jersey political machine. Over in New York, Tammany Hall lost most of its power when Fiorello LaGuardia was elected mayor of NYC in 1933, but the machine has held on in New Jersey. Fulop wants to decapitate it. He is white.
  
  
• Josh Gottheimer (11%): The one-time Microsoft executive and later Clinton speechwriter and congressman Josh Gottheimer is a moderate running on a platform of lowering taxes and lowering the cost of living. He says he will make government more efficient, that magic word. Of course, if he lowers taxes, in reality he will also have to cut spending, but is silent on how he will do that. He is white.
  
  
• Sean Spiller (10%): Former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller is now president of the New Jersey Education Association. As such, he is popular with union members, especially teachers. His platform is about giving kids the future they deserve. He also wants to get costs down, but doesn't explain how. He opposes unfunded mandates for the cities. He is Black.
  
  
• Steve Sweeney (5%): The former state Senate President Steve Sweeney held that office for 12 years then was defeated for reelection in 2021. He was an iron worker before getting into politics and is now vice president of the iron workers union. He and Spiller will split the union vote. His top priorities are fixing the budget and building more housing.

However, note that 24% are undecided, so late-breaking news could have a big effect.

Republicans

• Jack Ciattarelli (44%): After losing to Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) in 2021, Jack Ciattarelli wants another whack at the piñata. He wants to cap property taxes, change the school funding formula, cut the state budget and stop making New Jersey a sanctuary state for undocumented immigrants. He embraces Donald Trump. Like all the Republican candidates, he is white. Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli.
  
  
• Bill Spadea (18%): The former right-wing radio host and perpetual losing candidate wants to make New Jersey affordable again. He also wants to end the immigration crisis by repealing the 2018 state XO on making New Jersey a sanctuary state. He wants to end subsidies to Planned Parenthood and replicate DOGE at the state level. He doesn't really have much else in his platform.
  
  
• Jon Bramnick (8%): State Sen. Jon Bramnick was minority leader in the Assembly until he ran for the state Senate in 2021. He describes himself as a Never Trump Republican, maybe because he is an Always Musk Republican? His thing is getting rid of waste and overregulation in government. He also admits New Jersey has corruption. Who knew?
  
  
• Justin Barbera (2%): He has worked as a real estate developer, contractor and snow removal service operator. We're not sure why he is running for governor of New Jersey. Sounds like he is doing fine.
  
  
• Mario Kranjac (2%): He is a rich lawyer, former small-town mayor, and unapologetic supporter of Donald Trump. Good luck with that in New Jersey, especially when some other Republican has Trump's endorsement.
  

On this side, 23% are undecided, and if they all go in the same direction, that could upend everything. Still, the smart money thinks Ciattarelli will get a second shot at it. (V)