Jun.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

The Battle of Los Angeles Continues

In general, major incidents of urban unrest last for the better part of a week. So, even if the unrest in Los Angeles right now was entirely organic, it would not be too surprising that things have not yet returned to completely normal. And given that this particular unrest is not organic, and was largely manufactured for political theater purposes, it would not be too surprising if things went on a bit longer than would normally be the case.

Whatever the future may hold, in the present, the clashes in Los Angeles continue to dominate the news. Here's a rundown of the 10 biggest storylines from yesterday:

1. No Emergency Injunction: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and California AG Rob Bonta asked for an immediate, emergency injunction telling the Trump administration to knock it off and stop sending troops to Los Angeles. They did not get what they wanted. U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer said yesterday that he would give the Trump administration until Thursday to file briefs explaining its position. The Judge also insinuated that his decision on an injunction would come shortly thereafter.
   
   
2. Money Well Spent: The Trump administration is very interested in saving money, right up until it's not. Yesterday, Bryn MacDonnell, who is the acting comptroller of the Department of Defense, appeared before the House Appropriations defense subcommittee and was asked how much the deployment of National Guard troops and Marines will cost. Her best guess: $134 million. Your tax dollars at work.
   
   Somehow, at least so far, that $134 million does not appear to cover such luxuries as, you know, food and shelter. With Newsom taking the lead (more on him in a moment), many people have been circulating images like these on social media:
   
   
   
   Whether this catches fire, we do not know. What we do know, however, is that people are much more impressed by visual evidence than by any other kind.
   
   
3. Big Beautiful Bill Boost?: Speaking of money, Donald Trump's budget bill contains money for stricter immigration enforcement. Consequently, some Republicans are using the events in Los Angeles as an opportunity to push for quick passage of the bill. The most obvious culprit here is Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who posted this to eX-Twitter yesterday:

   The lawlessness happening in LA is ANOTHER reason why we need to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill IMMEDIATELY.
   
   It provides the ESSENTIAL funding needed to secure our nations borders.
   
   Congress WILL support the brave @ICEgov agents who are fighting to keep Americans safe against illegal aliens AND the radical left.

   Readers' opinions might vary, but to us, this sounds like hot air. There is just no chance that the Senate is going to ram through a multi-trillion-dollar budget, which contains a lot of things that one senator or another is unhappy about, just because this week's headlines happen to be about clashes over immigration policy. And by the time the Senate is ready to move, things will surely have quieted down in L.A. and elsewhere.
   
   
4. Just for Show: Several folks (CNN's Aaron Blake was the first one we saw) have made a more refined version of an observation we had in yesterday's item about the unrest in Los Angeles. In short, there is a pretty big gap between Donald Trump's words about what is going on and what is ACTUALLY going on.
   
   Trump has, of course, made it seem as if L.A. has turned into some sort of hellscape. This is not the case. The confrontations between the protesters and the authorities have been largely peaceful, have been relatively few in number, and have been confined to a fairly small part of the city. We've gotten a number of e-mails from readers concerned about Angelenos (Z) and (L), and we certainly appreciate the concern, but the fact is that the observable evidence from where (Z) and (L) live has been pretty minimal.
   
   More significantly, at the same time he paints the picture of a post-apocalyptic warzone, Trump has also asserted that order is restored (or largely so) and that the credit goes to the National Guard and the Marines (and, by extension, to Donald Trump). The latter part of this is also a falsehood. The Marines, it would seem, have not actually been deployed yet, as they are undergoing "additional training." The National Guard HAS been deployed—at least, the first contingent of 2,000 troops—but they are basically limited to glorified security-guard duty. And besides, normal order was almost entirely restored before they arrived.
   
   In addition to spinning a fanciful tale that bears no real resemblance to what's happening on the ground, it's worth remembering that, as we noted yesterday, Trump has not invoked the Insurrection Act, which means that the hands of the various armed forces he's deployed are fairly well tied. Add it up, and it looks very much like he wants the benefits of "cracking down" without assuming the risks of actually doing so. There is presumably some awareness on his part, or on the part of the people around him, that if a civilian or two ends up dead—à la Kent State—it could be politically disastrous.
   
   
5. Senators Side with Trump: Most of the Republicans in the Senate (or, as The Bulwark's Joe Perticone describes them, the "enablers") have cheered the Trump administration's pseudo-crackdown on... whatever it is Trump is cracking down on. For example, John Kennedy (R-LA), who is a reliable Trump water-toter, said: "I don't think that the president had any choice." And John Cornyn (R-TX), who is in the midst of being primaried from the right by Texas AG Ken Paxton (R), decreed: "I think [Trump] needs to restore order," while opining that there is "plenty of precedent" for Trump's unprecedented deployment of the National Guard.
   
   There are three senators in particular that we want to highlight, for various reasons. First up is Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR). As readers may recall, almost exactly 5 years ago (June 3, 2020), he wrote an op-ed for The New York Times in which he argued that the military should be used against civilians when it's necessary to maintain order. This generated so much outrage that the editor responsible for the piece, James Bennet, was compelled to resign (and several other editors were fired).
   
   Boy, how the Overton window has moved. The mere suggestion was outrageous 5 years ago. Now, it's actually happening, and... well, there's not too much outrage, at least not from the nation's newspapers. That includes The Wall Street Journal, which ran a very slightly updated version of Cotton's op-ed yesterday. We suspect nobody's going to be resigning, or is going to get fired, this time around.
   
   Next, there's Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK). We've been asked a couple of times, recently, to make our picks for which senator will be the dumbest one after Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) departs, and Mullin was very near the top of our list. He reminded us why yesterday. During an appearance on Fox, he was asked about Newsom, and said this:

   The guy absolutely should be thanking President Trump right now for trying to restore order because the only thing Governor Newsom is good at right now is sucking at being number one at being a terrible governor. I mean, that is it.

   Oklahoma has the death penalty for a lot of things, and reading this makes us wonder if it should be extended to crimes against the English language. Not only did the Senator issue forth with this nearly unintelligible gibberish, but he threw so many negatives in there that he actually ended up saying that Newsom is a good governor. Or, more accurately, that he sucks at being a bad governor.
   
   Finally, there is Sen. John Fetterman (D?-PA). The title of this section is "Senators Side with Trump" and not "Republican Senators Side with Trump" because Fetterman has largely sounded like someone on the other side of the aisle in his response to the events in L.A. For example: "This is anarchy and true chaos. My party loses the moral high ground when we refuse to condemn setting cars on fire, destroying buildings, and assaulting law enforcement."
   
   Anyone who thinks that what is happening in L.A. is "anarchy and true chaos" is unfamiliar with what actual anarchy and true chaos look like. It's hard to know where Fetterman might be getting some of these ideas from. Maybe, and we're just spitballing here, he got them from Steve Bannon when the two had dinner on Monday night.
   
   
6. Democrats Get Tough: Fetterman's odd posturing notwithstanding, Democratic politicians have very clearly concluded that they need to be against Trump's actions, but also against anything that protesters do that is not 100% peaceful. Newsom, for his part, has warned that anyone who breaks the law will be prosecuted to the fullest extent possible. Meanwhile, Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass has imposed a curfew on a relatively small portion of downtown Los Angeles, forbidding anyone from going into that area between 8:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m. PT, unless they work/live there or are emergency/law enforcement personnel.
   
   We know that Newsom is trying to leverage all of this to boost his 2028 presidential bid (more on this in a moment). We are not quite sure what Bass' goals are. The area she's put under curfew has seen some vandalism, but isn't where the main flare-ups of physical violence took place (that was actually about 10 miles to the south of the curfew area). It's certainly possible that she should be taken at face value, and that she's doing this for the safety of Los Angeles. Or, it's possible that she's doing this for Team Democrat, to send the message that the Party is strongly against non-peaceful demonstrations. These seem about equally likely to us. Unlike Newsom, she's probably not angling for her next job in politics, as she is 71 years old, and the L.A. mayoralty is probably the final chapter for her public career.
   
   An interesting question, at least to us, is what will happen if the curfew is maintained through Friday. The Dodgers will be back at home that evening, and the western edge of the curfew area is also the eastern edge of the stadium property. The game that night does not even start until 7:10, and so will conclude well after 8:00, especially since Dustin "Bombs Away" May is expected to pitch. If people are not allowed to use the surface streets in DTLA, it will be a mess, traffic-wise. Take this from someone who ALWAYS exits Dodger Games by taking Stadium Way to Broadway, and Broadway to Ninth.
   
   
7. Newsom Seizes the Day: Newsom appears to be doing what he thinks is best for California, but, as we note several times above, he's also riding this for all it's worth, in hopes of boosting his national profile and his brand. Yesterday morning, he posted a very surreal video to eX-Twitter. In the background is footage of the imperial stormtroopers from Star Wars. In the foreground is one of Donald Trump's tweets about the situation. And then the audio is a computerized voice meant to sound like Emperor Palpatine reading the tweet. Truth be told, Newsom should have called (Z); he can do a considerably better Palpatine impression than the computer can. Later in the day (around 3:30 PT, and thus 6:30 ET), Newsom delivered an address to the state/nation that was broadcast on most local TV stations, as well as CNN and several other cable stations. To get a sense of the thing, here is Newsom's concluding thought:

   It's time for all of us to stand up. Justice Brandeis—who said it best—in a democracy, the most important office, with all due respect, Mr. President, is not the presidency. And it's certainly not governor. The most important office is office of citizen at this moment. At this moment, we all need to stand up and be held to a higher level of accountability.
   
   If you exercise your First Amendment rights, please, please do it peacefully. I know many of you are feeling deep anxiety, stress, and fear. But I want you to know that you are the antidote to that fear and that anxiety. What Donald Trump wants most is your fealty, your silence, to be complicit in this moment. Do not give in to him.

   Newsom's trying to be statesmanlike. Whether he succeeded is in the eye of the beholder.
   
   What the Governor REALLY wants, so bad he can taste it, is to be arrested by the Trump administration. We made mention of that in our piece yesterday, and Newsom continued to goad/dare the White House throughout the day. We doubt Trump would be stupid enough to take the bait, but with him, you never know. If Newsom did manage to get himself arrested, he would wear that as a badge of honor every single day from now until November 7, 2028. It would become necessary to get that old joke about Rudy Giuliani out of mothballs: "With Newsom, every sentence has three parts: a noun, a verb, and 'my arrest.'"
   
   
8. McIver, Too?: Undoubtedly, Newsom is jealous of Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-NJ), who has already been arrested, and who was formally indicted on three charges yesterday by Trump-attorney-turned-interim-U.S.-Attorney-for-New-Jersey Alina Habba. Normally, when the feds indict you, you're in a world of hurt, since they have a success rate well north of 90%. This case would appear to be the exception to the rule, however. First, if it ever gets to trial, it won't be too tough to make a persuasive argument that the prosecution is politically motivated. Second, even if McIver were a private citizen, it's a tough climb to argue that the things she was accused of doing rise to the level of being a federal crime. Third, McIver is not a private citizen, and has at least some extra leeway by virtue of the Constitution's Speech and Debate clause, which protects her from prosecution for actions undertaken in her official capacity as a member of Congress.
   
   Exactly how far the protection afforded to McIver extends is a good question, but if you add up all the problems that the government has to overcome in order to secure a conviction, Habba's odds certainly don't look good. One wonders if this will even get before a judge, or if the feds will quietly drop the matter once they've gotten the headlines they wanted. As to McIver, she'll certainly fundraise off of this. And if she goes on trial, she'll become a cause célèbre among Democrats. Could she leverage that into a promotion, the way Newsom is trying to do? The problem is that the New Jersey governorship is about to be claimed for 4 years (see below), and the state's two U.S. Senate seats are pretty well locked up, by Andy Kim (D) and Cory Booker (D). That said, if Booker is somehow elected president, there will be a vacancy. Alternatively, one could see McIver serving in a Democratic cabinet (say, as DHS Secretary). Or, if the Democratic nominee is a milquetoast white guy (as appears likely), she could be a ticket-balancing VP candidate, although having been in the House for 9 months is a bit of a weak resume for being next in line.
   
   
9. Protests Spread: Although Trump claims to have restored order (once again, despite simultaneously claiming that L.A. is a Blade Runner-like hellscape), things actually seem to be going in the opposite direction nationwide. There were (almost universally peaceful) anti-ICE protests in at least two dozen cities yesterday. And it wasn't just pinko commie cities in pinko commie states. The list includes Columbus, Dallas, Las Vegas, Louisville, Nashville, San Antonio and San Diego. It is true that many American voters tend to take a dim view of demonstrators. However, it is also true that what Americans really dislike is instability and unrest, and that eventually, blame tends to fall on whatever person or party is in power when the instability and unrest takes place. If he were not dead, Lyndon B. Johnson might have a useful thought or two on that subject.
   
   
10. Day of Kings: The current state of affairs makes for an interesting context for Donald Trump's reenactment of Triumph of the Will birthday parade, which is scheduled for Saturday. Undoubtedly, readers know by now that there will be nationwide "No Kings" demonstrations in response to the event. That reportedly includes a demonstration in Washington, DC (though not an official one sanctioned by the "No Kings" organizers, as they are nervous about a potential Tiananmen Square situation). Trump has already warned that if anyone gives him the sads on his birfday, they will be met with "very heavy force." It's possible that he'll make good on that threat, because if there's one thing he hates, it's the feeling that he's being disrespected. But we will remind folks of two things: (1) As we note above, he's speaking loudly and yet carrying a small stick vis-à-vis Los Angeles right now and (2) TACO.

And there you have it. (Z)