Dem
47
GOP
53
In order for the Senate to use the budget reconciliation procedure to avoid a filibuster, the budget bill must not increase the federal deficit above the baseline after 10 years. The rub is what is used for the baseline. The 2017 tax cuts are set to expire next year. If they do, taxes will go up and the government will have more revenue. Senate Republicans want to use a kind of magic accounting that deviates from normal accounting to make sure they can get this year's tax cuts through without violating the reconciliation rules. Many House Republicans see this as a scam and haven't fallen for it.
In fact, 37 House members, led by Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-PA), sent a letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) warning him not to play games with them. They want the deficit to go down, or at least not go up when actual accounting rules are used. They don't want the deficit to grow and for that to be covered up by some magic accounting rules. But making the budget revenue-neutral would require either giving up some of Donald Trump's pet projects, like no tax on tips or overtime, or cutting Medicaid and other programs more deeply. What they don't want is what they call "budget gimmicks" that hide actual increases in the deficit by using shady accounting rules. Literally, they said: "Offsets must come from permanent reforms that make the budget more sustainable, not timing shifts or other budget gimmicks." They are on to the Senate's game and don't like it. Since the Senate bill will have to be approved by the House, the hardliners are threatening to vote "no" on the revised bill if the accounting used hides the real increase in the deficit. This could set off a confrontation between the chambers.
Among the signatories are Chair of the House Budget Committee Jodey Arrington (R-TX), Vice-chair of the House Republican Conference Blake Moore (R-UT) and Chair of the Freedom Caucus Andy Harris (R-MD). These are all hardliners.
Meanwhile, a number of senators want to make expensive changes of one kind or another—for example, not slashing Medicaid as much as the House did. Or not cutting SNAP (food stamps) as much as the House did. The SNAP program feeds more than 40 million Americans and some senators are loathe to cut it as drastically as the House did.
In short, the sausage is being made right now and, as is usually the case, it's not pretty. If the Senate does anything that explodes the deficit even more, the resulting bill may have a lot of trouble in the House. The senators have now been warned. (V)