Dem
47
GOP
53
As most readers will know by now, Israel launched a massive missile attack on Iran yesterday. The ostensible target was Iran's nuclear program, which is reportedly close to being able to produce a working nuclear device. In the attack, Gen. Hossein Salami and Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, two high-ranking Iranian officers, were killed, along with two nuclear scientists.
Every time one of these two nations becomes aggressive with the other, there is much talk that it could develop into some sort of broader, regional war that draws in other nations on both sides. If so, the United States would presumably be one of those nations, since support for Israel is a bedrock of American foreign policy. This never actually seems to happen, as there are a lot of reasons that Iran and Israel don't want to end up fighting a full-fledged war. That said, we are most certainly not experts here, and so have no idea if there's a reason to think this time might be different. Similarly, other than knowing that he often loves a good distraction from domestic problems, we don't have any notion as to whether there is some specific reason that Benjamin Netanyahu chose now to attack.
What we are saying here, in so many words, is that if you want discussion of those kinds of issues, we suggest reading an outlet where people know what they are talking about. Foreign Policy is very good in this area, though you have to pay for a subscription. Alternatively, reading both Haaretz and Al Jazeera usually gives a pretty well-rounded picture. Although those outlets are based in Israel and Qatar, respectively, they are independent, and not mouthpieces for any political actor.
The one thing we CAN comment on is the American politics angle. And since we have a lot of other material to write for this posting, we're going to be pretty blunt. Donald Trump, who tore up the nuclear deal that Barack Obama reached with Iran, and then (characteristically) claimed that coming up with a superior agreement would be as easy as pie, has failed miserably. Members of his team, including some negotiators who actually know what they are doing (meaning they presumably did NOT read The Art of the Deal) have been trying to work something out with the Iranian government. Furthermore, for several days, it's been clear that Israel was about to do this, and Trump tried hard to talk Netanyahu out of it, and to let diplomacy take its course. Netanyahu ignored him, obviously.
One cannot help but notice that the same basic pattern played out with the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump promised that he would bring peace to that part of the world; in fact, he said he'd do so on the first day of his second term in office. That did not happen, obviously, and since then he's flopped around like a beached whale, sometimes working with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, sometimes working against him. The Donald presented himself as the Putin whisperer, based on his belief that he has some sort of special relationship with the Russian president. That has proven to be not the case; as with Trump's relationship with Netanyahu, the "friendship" is only in effect when Putin needs it to be.
During Trump's first term, there were no major foreign policy crises. Maybe that is because he did something right. Or maybe it's because he's erratic, and everyone was worried he might go off half-cocked. Or maybe he just got lucky. Again, not our area, so we really don't know.
It's certainly possible that Trump v2.0 could end in the same way, with no major setbacks, and with a little progress here and there (the Abraham Accords the first time around; this time, there's reportedly positive momentum in Syria). But it's also possible that Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Iran, Israel-Palestine or some other situation will explode into something very, very bad. If so, then that is going to be on Trump, even when he inevitably tries to point the finger at Joe Biden, Barack Obama, etc. In particular, if Iran becomes a nuclear power in the next 3 years, then that's entirely on the current president's plate, given the choices he's made. So much so that, just as American soldiers used to write "Kilroy was here" on U.S. bombs, Iranian soldiers should write "Trump was here" on any Iranian nuclear bombs. (Z)