Dem 47
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GOP 53
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Iran Stuff

"Overpromise and underdeliver" is pretty much the theme of Donald Trump's political career (it's probably also true of other aspects of his life). There was a lot of Iran-related news yesterday, and nearly all of it would seem to be adverse for the President. Here's a rundown of the biggest stories:

Meltdown: Probably the best indication that Donald Trump knows (or suspects) he misplayed his hand is that he was on edge yesterday, and he lost his cool in front of reporters, and cursed out... Israel. Apparently, he believed that when Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire to take effect in 12 hours, they would cease firing immediately, and not in 12 hours. That did not happen and, in particular, Israel used that time to get a few extra volleys in despite Trump telling them not to do it.

Anyhow, as Trump walked to Marine One yesterday morning, he paused for about a minute to deliver a harangue about Iran and Israel, but especially Israel:



It's only a minute, and it's worth watching. But the key part, which got all the attention, was his final, irritated comment: "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing." (Reminder: We don't censor words that were used publicly, on camera/tape).

If Trump did not realize that the two sides would make sure to get some more shots in before the ceasefire kicked in, then he's a fucking idiot (the rubicon has already been crossed, thanks to Trump, so we might as well take advantage). This is what ALWAYS happens when there's a window before a ceasefire. He's clearly embarrassed that Israel did not do as he commanded and that, in fact, they openly defied him after he told them not to drop any more bombs.

Trump may also be developing an awareness that the shooting is not going to stop, for all time, thanks to his diplomacy, and that it was asinine to declare: "I don't believe they will ever be shooting at each other again." Already, both Iran and Israel are accusing each other of violating the terms of the ceasefire agreement. On top of that, Israel has made clear that their end goal is to end the Iranian nuclear program, and that since that has not happened, there WILL be future operations against Iran from the Israeli military.

Intel Dump: In our item yesterday, we ran down the early evidence that the U.S.-Israel attack was not particularly successful, from a strategic standpoint, and that it likely did not do all that much harm to the Iranian nuclear program.

Yesterday, CNN got its hands on the Department of Defense's early assessment, and reported that the DoD has reached that same conclusion. In fact, it would appear the attack set the Iranians back a few months, at most. Later in the day, The New York Times, The Washington Post and other outlets confirmed CNN's reporting.

The DoD says that a big part of the reason the attacks were not successful is that—wait for it—Iran knew they were coming. We wrote yesterday that Trump's erratic behavior, veering wildly from overselling diplomacy to overselling military action, surely must have tipped the Iranians off that an attack was very possible. As it turns out, however, Trump made it even more obvious than that. You see, while there aren't that many people who regularly visit his small-hands social media site, you can bet that the intel services of every nation have at least one person monitoring his feed. And so, the Iranians were surely aware of the message he posted after leaving the G7 early:

Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a "cease fire" between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!

If it's something big, and it's definitely not a ceasefire, then what else could it be, but a military attack? This is less subtle than the plot of a Hallmark movie. And if Trump were anyone but the president, this might well be enough for him to be prosecuted for leaking military intelligence. Oh, and don't overlook that the reason he shared all of this information was... to thumb his nose at Emmanuel Macron.

Infighting: As we noted in the piece yesterday, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) is trying hard to sell the idea that the MAGA base is united behind Trump and that any claims to the contrary are preposterous.

When Cotton made that assertion, we were (once again) reminded of the scene at the end of Animal House that features Kevin Bacon (in his debut performance, incidentally):



Nothing that has happened in the last 24 hours or so has given us reason to rethink our skepticism, as GOP-on-GOP squabbles are breaking out all over the place. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is finding any opportunity he can to poke Trump in the eye. Steve Bannon (anti-bombing) and Fox entertainer Mark Levin (pro-bombing) keep ripping into each other, with Levin describing Bannon as a "contemptible POS" and Bannon slurring Levin as "Tel Aviv Levin" and "Spokesmodel for a foreign nation." Levin has also slammed Tucker Carlson (anti-bombing), calling him "the happy hooker of politics." Candace Owens (who, it should be noted, is a loony bird) declared that she's "embarrassed" that she told people to vote for Trump. Matt Gaetz (anti-bombing) is sparring publicly with... his mom (pro-bombing).

Democratic Response: Mostly, the Democrats are sitting back and letting events unfold. After all, as the old saying goes, "If your opponent is shooting themselves in the foot... let them." That said, Rep. Al Green (D-TX) is just itching to impeach Trump for... something, and he felt this was his opportunity. So, he filed articles of impeachment, and as a privileged motion, so that a vote had to be held. And the motion was quickly quashed by all the Republicans in the House, plus about ⅔ of the Democrats.

Polling: There has now been enough time to poll the voting public about the bombing in particular, and about Trump in general, and the results are not good for the President. For example, the latest from CNN reveals that 56% of Americans disapprove of the bombing attack, as opposed to 44% who approve. That's very poor, particularly given that military strikes usually trigger a (temporary) rally-round-the-flag effect. The crosstabs are also worrisome for the administration; not only do 88% of Democrats disapprove of the bombings, but so too do 60% of independents. Further, the percentage of Democrats who strongly disapprove (60%) is considerably larger than the number of Republicans who strongly approve (44%), suggesting that any further action in the region will embolden the opposition to Trump while weakening his support.

Trump's overall approval rating has also taken a hit due to the bombings. In the more friendly polls, he's generally underwater by around 5 points. In the less friendly polls, he's generally underwater by around 12 points. Across all polls, he's down 3-4 points in the last week.

Peace Out: Trump continues to obsess over the Nobel Peace Prize, something he thinks he should already have won at least once, if not two or three times. This weekend, he posted yet another lengthy screed, which ended with him whining: "I won't get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do, including Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran, whatever those outcomes may be, but the people know, and that's all that matters to me!"

Yesterday, he suffered a wee bit of a setback, as Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko formally (and loudly) withdrew his nomination of Trump for the prize, explaining that he has lost "any sort of faith and belief" in Trump. The MAGA faithful are still lobbying hard for Trump, and one of them, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA) made his own nomination of Trump, to replace the one from Merezhko (plus, the Pakistani government has reportedly also made a nomination). So, Trump is technically still in the running, the same way the 18-61 Colorado Rockies are technically still in the running to win the World Series.

And that's the latest from Tuesday. (Z)



This item appeared on www.electoral-vote.com. Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news, Saturday for answers to reader's questions, and Sunday for letters from readers.

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