Normally, the word "shank" is used to describe a (particular type of) screw-up in golf. Given that Donald Trump seems to divide his time roughly equally between golfing and governing, it seemed appropriate to use it here.
Earlier this week, we made mention of the occasion where Ronald Reagan ordered the bombing of Libya. That likely did not benefit the Gipper or his party, long-term (recall, the Republicans took a beating in the midterms that year). However, it certainly boosted Reagan's approval rating in the short-term. And while St. Ronnie wasn't in the top echelon of presidents when it comes to intelligence, he was plenty smart enough to frame things properly. To wit: Libya was responsible for several acts of violence, particularly the bombing of La Belle discotheque; the U.S. has punished Libya for its actions, the end. The President kept it nice and simple, and did not try to make the "accomplishment" seem bigger or more meaningful than it really was.
Trump, by contrast, feels the need to oversell everything (see Overreach, Adventures in). And so, after ordering the attack on Iran, Trump made the grandiose pronouncement that Iran's nuclear program was "obliterated." He also claimed that Iran and Israel would never shoot at each other again, a claim so absurd that nobody could possibly take it seriously. The "obliterated" part was at least in the realm of possibility, but as we've written multiple times, it clearly didn't happen that way.
Still, as is par for the course (another golf reference!), Trump and his administration continue to double- and triple-down on his original claim. The President spoke to the press yesterday and reiterated that total obliteration is what happened. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth did the same. The White House also gave briefings to key Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, trying to sell them on the idea that Iran has been badly wounded. The Democrats weren't buying it at all and even the Republicans were having trouble swallowing the President's claims. One is reminded of the occasion where Trump used a Sharpie to try to convince everyone that a hurricane had hit places it hadn't actually hit. We're actually a little surprised there isn't already a Sharpie-enhanced map of the damage to the Iranian nuclear facilities:
Because of his (chronically) loose lips, Trump has thus backed himself into a corner. Two corners, really. First, his whole brand is "I am strong/macho/masculine." If the bombing was ineffectual, it makes him look weak. If he changes course, and admits it wasn't as successful as it first appeared, that also makes him look weak. It does not help things that one of the signature accomplishments of the Obama administration was the successful raid on the Osama bin Laden compound. That wasn't a bombing, of course, but it was a bold strike against a national security threat, and one that actually achieved its goals.
The second corner boils down to: What next? If the (clearly ineffective) attack is one-and-done, and Iran is back at full strength in a few months (and, in particular, if they become a nuclear power within 6-18 months), then that looks very, very bad for Trump. On the other hand, if he decides there will need to be a second attack (and maybe a third, and a fourth, etc.), then he risks dragging the U.S. into yet another endless war. He would also divide his base, which includes a LOT of isolationists. Neither outcome is a good one for the administration.
You can tell that Trump knows he really stepped in it because, as he does when his back is against the wall, he is lashing out right now. Specifically, he pulled one of his favorite clubs out of the bag (third golf reference!) and blamed the messenger. In this case, the messenger he chose was CNN's Natasha Bertrand, who was part of the team that wrote the original story about how the attack did not achieve its goals. Here's his first potshot:
Natasha Bertrand should be FIRED from CNN! I watched her for three days doing Fake News. She should be IMMEDIATELY reprimanded, and then thrown out "like a dog."She lied on the Laptop from Hell Story, and now she lied on the Nuclear Sites Story, attempting to destroy our Patriot Pilots by making them look bad when, in fact, they did a GREAT job and hit "pay dirt"— TOTAL OBLITERATION! She should not be allowed to work at Fake News CNN. It's people like her who destroyed the reputation of a once great Network. Her slant was so obviously negative, besides, she doesn't have what it takes to be an on camera correspondent, not even close. FIRE NATASHA!
He later broadened his attack to include The New York Times, referring to the reporters who covered the Iran story as "BAD AND SICK PEOPLE":
We just caught the Failing New York Times, working with Fake News CNN, cheating again! They tried to demean the great work our B-2 pilots did, and they were wrong in doing so. These reporters are just BAD AND SICK PEOPLE. You would think they would be proud of the great success we had, instead of trying to always make our Country look bad. TOTAL OBLITERATION!
The President also blamed the Democrats for leaking the information about the "PERFECT FLIGHT" to these news outlets. This despite the fact that both outlets published their stories before the Democrats had been briefed. In any case, notice how he keeps repeating "TOTAL OBLITERATION!" He just can't back down, or even just remain quiet and allow it to fade away.
It would appear, based on inside information leaked by someone in the White House, that the administration has determined that allowing Iran to become a nuclear power (or a near-nuclear power) is a nonstarter, and so is another attack. That leaves Team Trump with the exactly the same approach as the one pursued by (the hated) Team Obama: diplomacy, aided by goodies to make it worth the Iranians' while. Specifically, there is talk of freeing up $30 billion in frozen Iranian funds, to help them redirect their nuclear program toward civilian use. Note that, after the Obama administration freed up frozen Iranian funds as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Trump went on a Twitter rampage (it was still actually called Twitter back then, of course), accusing Obama of selling out and aiding and abetting terrorists. He also predicted that Obama would start a war with Iran for political gain. Almost right, Mr. President!
Is the lesson here that Trump is a hypocrite? That it's much easier to "govern" from the cheap seats? Maybe some of both. The problem is that there may be no more difficult diplomatic nut to crack than Iran. And while Obama had a skilled team of people working under him, most of Trump's underlings were chosen not for their talents as negotiators, but for their skill in ball-washing (one last golf reference!). (Z)