Dem
47
GOP
53
By the time you read this, blanket 25% tariffs on all goods entering the U.S. from Mexico and Canada, along with 20% tariffs on goods from China, will have taken effect. There are a small number of exceptions, most obviously that energy coming from Canada will only be taxed at 10%.
At this point, in what will seem to be a non sequitur, let us talk about the now-deceased baseball player Pete Rose for a moment. Rose, as most readers will know, was kicked out of baseball because, while managing the Cincinnati Reds, he bet on the team to win. Thanks to the Black Sox scandal, this is a major no-no—so much so that a sign warning everyone not to do it is posted in every Major League clubhouse. Rose was also a sleazeball outside of baseball, and did a stretch in prison for tax evasion.
This weekend, Donald Trump announced that he will give a "full pardon" to Rose, even though Rose is no longer around to enjoy it. And even though he has no direct power over Major League Baseball policy, the President also opined that Rose should be formally reinstated back into baseball, and that he should be admitted into the Baseball Hall of Fame, since Rose only bet on his team to win. Ipso facto, no actual harm done.
We don't want to go too much off the beaten track, but what we will say is that there are certainly a few compelling arguments for bestowing forgiveness upon Rose, at least in terms of his baseball-related punishments. For example, you could point out that his crimes against baseball took place only while he was a manager. So, perhaps Rose the manager should never be admitted into the Hall of Fame, but Rose the legendary player should be. Don't think we are embracing this argument, necessarily. We just point it out as a potentially valid line of reasoning.
Trump's argument for Rose's reinstatement, on the other hand, is simultaneously knee-jerk and stupid. First, "I only bet on my team to win" is no defense, since a manager (like Rose) could very well manage differently in games where he does have a bet versus games where he does not have a bet, which means the integrity of play would still be affected. There is considerable evidence that this is indeed what happened; specifically, that Rose overused star pitcher Jose Rijo in games where he (Rose) had a bet on the outcome. And this is before we talk about the possibility of someone getting deep into hock with bookies, and being forced to do... whatever in order to bail themselves out of trouble.
The point here is that in a low-stakes situation where Trump has no particular reason to misrepresent his position, he has a take that can only be described as ignorant. And that just affirms our sense that he really and truly does have a simplistic view of tariffs as some sort of magic pill that can solve... whatever problem he thinks he is solving.
For the record, the White House has explained exactly why it imposed tariffs today. Here's the key line from the press release issued yesterday:
While President Trump gave both Canada and Mexico ample opportunity to curb the dangerous cartel activity and influx of lethal drugs flowing into our country, they have failed to adequately address the situation.
The flow of contraband drugs like fentanyl into the United States, through illicit distribution networks, has created a national emergency, including a public health crisis.
This is complete and utter bull**it, of course. Trump has been in office for 5 weeks. He's been pressuring Canada and Mexico on the fentanyl for a little over half of that. How could they possibly make any meaningful progress in such a short time? Or, to put it another way, if it's so easy, how come Trump's team hasn't made any meaningful progress on the fentanyl issue—not in the 5 weeks he's been in office this time, not in the 4 years he was in office the last time?
In short, because Trump's understanding of how tariffs work would earn him a D- on an Econ 101 midterm, and because he apparently thinks that the tariffs have something to do with the national debt, and because his official position on the tariffs is just nonsensical scapegoating, we find it very difficult to understand exactly what he's trying to accomplish, much less to figure out what "victory" will look like. Certainly, we can speculate as to what he's trying to accomplish—create a distraction, given the various embarrassments of DOGE, to take one possible example—but it would just be wild guesses.
That said, we do know a couple of things. The first is that he already "imposed" tariffs once before, and then quickly backed down, very possibly in response to the markets getting spooked. Well, the Dow fell about 800 points yesterday, the S&P 500 was down 2.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3%. That's the worst day the market has had all year, and the futures market last night did not suggest a rebound is in the offing. So, it's not out of the question that sometime today—maybe in his address to Congress—Trump will back down again, wagging his finger and warning Canada and Mexico that they have ONE MORE CHANCE to do... whatever.
The other thing we know is that Canada, in particular, is set to respond with... enthusiasm, let's say. PM Justin Trudeau has already imposed reciprocal tariffs equal in scope to the ones from Trump. And, as readers of this site surely know, the Canadians are MAD. So, not only does Trudeau have political cover to impose the tariffs, but the Canadian public is going to be thrilled to see them. To take another example, Doug Ford, who was reelected as the premier of Ontario last week, was practically doing a jig yesterday when he announced that there would not only be tariffs on American goods, but that he planned to cut off electricity exports to the U.S. "with a smile on my face." In other words, if Trump thinks he is going to force the leaders of Canada to their knees, he looks to be seriously mistaken.
So, that is where things stand as of 2:00 a.m. PT Tuesday morning. Who knows where they will stand as of 2:00 a.m. PT on Wednesday morning. (Z)