Dem
47
GOP
53
Unless something is done, the government will shut down next Friday, March 14, because that is when funding expires. For the first time in Trump v2.0, Democrats have some de facto power and are thinking about whether to use it. In theory, the Republicans can pass any budget they want using the budget reconciliation process. After all, they hold the trifecta. In practice, they are badly divided and it may be impossible to put together a budget that all 218 House Republicans can agree on. If any two of them defect, the budget bill tanks. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is all too aware of this and is hoping for some Democrats to provide the votes he needs to compensate for Republicans who don't like whatever bill he puts together.
The Democrats' power comes from their ability to simply all vote "no" and let the government shut down. Many (but not all) government services would then stop at midnight. History has shown that the voters don't like this and tend to blame the president, especially when his party has the trifecta and could pass the budget without any Democratic votes. Trump may try to blame Joe Biden or Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton for the shutdown, but the voters aren't that stupid. Democrats will helpfully point out: "You have the majority; you can pass any budget bill you want. Your job, not ours."
Johnson understands his predicament and is thinking about a CR (Continuing Resolution) that funds all government departments that survive Elon and the Muskrats at current levels. Freedom Caucus members will balk at that, so Johnson will have to come to the Democrats, hat in hand, asking for them to save his ass. The Democrats are now considering their options. Many of them are itching for a fight. They feel that just continuing business as usual will be tacit approval for Musk taking a chainsaw to the government. They want to force changes, like putting some handcuffs on Musk. If Republicans refuse, then they are willing to risk a shutdown and take their chances that they can say: "How come the president, who claims to be the greatest dealmaker in American history, is incapable of making a deal that satisfies all House Republicans? He is a fake dealmaker."
Johnson has said the legislative branch cannot tell the executive branch what to do, such as handcuffing Musk. On the other hand, many Democrats have replied that the executive branch cannot refuse to spend money as directed by Congress (impoundment). A quid pro quo the Democrats could insist on, and probably be backed up by the Supreme Court, is that the executive branch would have to spend every penny appropriated by Congress as Congress specified.
The ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), has called a 1-year CR a "nonstarter." If she sticks to her guns, a shutdown is likely.
Recent polling has shown that voters, including most independents, don't like Musk or what he is doing. Making the shutdown about him could be a winning strategy, especially if it goes on for a long time. It would force Republicans to defend Musk and his DOGEys. If there is a shutdown, Republicans will call vote after vote to reopen shuttered agencies at current funding levels and Democrats will have to vote against this, which won't be popular. But they are likely to be joined by some Freedom Caucus members, so it will be bipartisan. It comes down to how much risk the Democrats are willing to accept and whether they think they can give Trump and the Republicans the blame.
Johnson has another enemy beside the Freedom Caucus and the Democrats: the calendar. Even when the top-line levels for each department are set, the filling in the details is a slow and painstaking process because that is where programs some legislators love go to die. Those legislators will undoubtedly argue that their favorites should live and someone else's programs should die instead. The sausage is not made in a day. It usually takes weeks, and there aren't weeks left. Of course, Congress can kick the can down the road by funding the government for 30 more days to allow time for the sausage to be made. Wouldn't be the first time. (V)