Dem
47
GOP
53
"Democrats in disarray" is "dog bites man." "Republicans in disarray" is "man bites dog." David Axelrod once said: "Presidential campaigns are like MRIs for the soul." Bill Scher thinks the budget reconciliation process is an MRI of the soul of a political party. In the next few months, we will find out what the Republican Party actually stands for. Is it only tax cuts for rich people? Is that the only thing all Republicans can agree on?
In 2017, many Republicans wanted to repeal the ACA. But one critical Republican, John McCain, didn't and they didn't repeal it. There are differences between the Trumpy Republicans and the normie Republicans, but given the small margins, anything there is no consensus on can't be included. Cutting $880 billion from Medicaid might pass the House but is unlikely to pass the Senate. In fact, there is no consensus at all on health care among Republicans (or Democrats, for that matter, but they don't have to draft a bill now).
A complicating factor is Donald Trump. Even if Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) pulls off a miracle and gets Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Mike Lawler (R-NY) on the same page about SALT and health care, Trump could swoop in at the last minute and demand something other than what they agreed to. Then it will be back to the drawing board. The reality is that the Republicans really aren't in agreement on a lot except cutting taxes for rich people and reducing the deficit, which are mutually contradictory. One way out is magic accounting, but Roy and the Freedom Caucus don't want that. Actually, even writing a bill that can get 218 votes in the House won't be easy. (V)