Dem
47
GOP
53
Political scientists and sociologists often group people by age. For example, Gen X'ers were born 1965-1979, Millennials were born 1980-1994, and Gen Z'ers were born 1995-2012. The assumption behind the grouping is that people born in the same span of 15 years or so had the same experiences and tend to think alike and vote alike. Some new data from the Yale Youth Poll suggests that a more fine-grained approach may be needed, at least for Gen Z. Politico has an interesting article analyzing the results of the poll with respect to the voting behavior of Gen Z'ers, who were 12-29 last year. Since the 12-17 year olds couldn't vote, the voting-age Gen Z'ers were 18-29 last year.
What the study showed is that the 18-21 year olds supported Republicans by 12 points while the 22-29 year olds supported the Democrats by 6 points. That kind of kills the theory that each cohort is homogeneous. The younger Gen Z'ers are much more conservative than the older ones. They are less likely to approve of trans athletes in girls' sports, less likely to support Ukraine, and more likely to support Donald Trump. In fact, 51% view him favorably (vs. 46% of the older Gen Z'ers). Each of these subgroups has a different worldview than the other one.
The article calls the 22-29 year olds Gen Z 1.0 and the 18-21 year olds Gen Z 2.0. Their experiences are different. Here are some of the differences:
| Gen Z 1.0 | Gen Z 2.0 |
| Age 22-29 | Age 18-21 |
| Voted for Harris by 6 points | Voted for Trump by 12 points |
| Graduated high school pre-COVID | Graduated high school post-COVID |
| Had flip phone before iPhone | Know only smartphones |
| Grew up with Instagram, no TikTok | Used to Snapchat, TikTok |
| Started college in Trump v1.0 | Started college in Biden era |
| Women's March, March for Our Lives, Black Lives Matter | Resistance to COVID masking, MAGA/Trump is the counter-culture |
Gen Z 1.0 was out of high school and tasted independence prior to COVID. Their coming of age was during Trump 1.0 and all the resistance movements. Gen Z 2.0 had to deal with COVID in high school and it disrupted their lives then. When some of them went to college, it was Zoom U., a completely different experience than what the older Gen Z'ers had. With Biden in power, for many young men, Trump seemed like the counter culture and they fell for him, hard.
The gender gap has been analyzed to death, but in Gen Z, it is more subtle. Women 22-29 have a net negative view of Trump while the younger women are split more evenly about him. Women of color 18-29 were overwhelmingly for Kamala Harris, but white women in Gen Z split 49-49 between Trump and Harris. This is a huge change from 2020, when young white women voted for Joe Biden over Trump by a 15-point margin. So it wasn't only young men who moved toward Trump in 2024. So did young white women. This could be because some of the Gen Z experiences, especially the pandemic, cut across gender lines.
Throughout history, young people haven't liked being told what to do and the Gen Z 2.0 group was told what to do about COVID, including masking and not going to parties. They perceived these orders coming from the Democrats and rebelled against them. Is this the whole story? Probably not, but it could be a start. (V)