Dem
47
GOP
53
Another Trumpy fellow who had hopes of leading a Western democracy has bitten the dust (politically, that is).
Earlier this week, it was Canada's Pierre Poilievre, who not only failed to be elected PM, but lost his own seat in Parliament. This weekend, it was Peter Dutton, whose right-wing Liberal Party not only got trounced, but who also lost the seat in suburban Brisbane that he's held for 20 years.
The dust is still settling, but it appears that the left-wing Labor Party will have at least 85 seats in the new Parliament, well more than the 76 needed for a majority. That's a gain of 12 seats for them (with 19 seats yet to be called), and makes Anthony Albanese the first Australian PM to be reelected since the early 2000s. The Liberal-National coalition, by contrast, has currently claimed only 36 seats. That's a loss of 17, and there aren't too many uncalled seats where the Liberal candidate is ahead, so a double-digit loss of members appears to be certain. Thus far, independents and minor parties have won 10 seats; that compares to 19 in the previous Parliament.
Donald Trump has not threatened to take over Australia, nor to devastate that nation's economy with tariffs. So, he wasn't as much an issue as he was in the Canadian election. However, that does not mean he was not an issue at all; he was certainly a factor in the election. Here's reader K.W. in Sydney, NSW, Australia:
Australians went to the polls on Saturday, and they returned Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor government for a second term after a landslide result.
This was by no means a certain outcome, even allowing for Australians' preference for giving governments a second go (the last single-term government lost in 1931). As recently as January, the opposition Liberal Party (our conservative party) was well-placed to tip Labor out of office, but a concerted effort by Albanese, and a dreadful election campaign by the opposition, has seen Labor returned.
The Trump effect was not nearly as strong as it was in Canada (I think Albanese would have been returned in any event), but it was definitely a factor. Labor's fortunes definitely rose as the chaos from Trump's America became more apparent, and as with Canada, the Liberals unwisely associated themselves with Trump, to their detriment.
Donald Trump is undoubtedly a huge threat to American democracy, and to that of the world. But it's clear that he is proving quite the boon for moderate Centre-Left incumbents elsewhere in the democratic world.
Thanks, K.W.! Readers should note that while the Aussies do tend to keep the ruling party, they do not tend to keep the ruling PM. Before Albanese and Labor took power in 2022, the Liberals won three straight elections, and had a new PM after each one (Tony Abbott, followed by Malcolm Turnbull, followed by Scott Morrison). The most recent PM to preside over multiple Parliaments was John Howard, who managed to hold on through four elections from 1996-2007.
And so, the Trump effect in Australia appears to be helping to turn what would have been a close election into a laugher. And in Canada, it was to help turn what should have been an easy victory for the Conservatives into a loss. Remarkably, in TrumpWorld, negative impact is still impact, and so he bragged about his influence late this week: "You know, until I came along, remember that the Conservative was leading by 25 points. Then I was disliked by enough of the Canadians that I've thrown the election into a close call, right? I don't even know if it's a close call." Yes, Mr. President, that is certainly something to be proud of... that so many Canadians hate you that much.
Incidentally, there has been a little news out of Canada over the weekend. Newly reelected PM Mark Carney has indicated that he will not form a coalition government after all (see below for more), and will instead whip non-Liberal Party votes on a case-by-case basis. Meanwhile, Poilievre has found someone to fall on their sword for him. It's Damien Kurek, who has been in the Canadian Parliament since 2019, and whose safe seat representing Battle River-Crowfoot in Alberta turns out to be a little too safe. Kurek just won reelection by 71 points, which is a big enough cushion that even Poilievre should not be able to screw it up in the special election that will be called due to Kurek's resignation. (Z)