May05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Trump Releases a Scorched-Earth Budget Plan

On Friday, Donald Trump released his wishes for next year's federal budget. It needs to be adopted before the start of the next fiscal year or the government will shut down on October 1. Of course, in practice, it is never adopted on time, and that leads to an endless series of continuing resolutions because Congress simply doesn't function anymore. It is not surprising that many people want a strongman to run the country since Congress is incapable of doing even its most basic job.

Trump's proposed budget asks Congress to slash non-defense spending by more than $163 billion. That is 23% and is enormous. No previous president has ever asked for anything of this magnitude. Here is a breakdown by department:

Here is a rough summary of where the cuts will hit the hardest (and where they won't):

• Agriculture: Many of the cuts here will hit rural areas—that is, Trump's base. These include rural development programs, housing loans in rural areas, forest management, and food programs for low-income seniors in rural areas. Food stamps and school lunches will also get hit. In addition, a program going back to the Eisenhower administration in which the government buys food and donates it as foreign aid (which keeps crop prices high for farmers by reducing the supply) is on the chopping block.
  
  
• Commerce: Programs that promote commerce in many ways, including trade, industrial standards, and scientific research, will be hit very hard. Everything the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration does related to climate change will be decimated, even weather forecasting. The Minority Business Development Agency, which helps minorities start and run small businesses, will lose $1 billion, even though Republicans have always said the way for minorities to get out of poverty is to let the private sector do the job. The only agency getting a boost within Commerce is the one that enforces trade law and regulates the export of sensitive goods. There is also some money to address America's supply-chain dependence on China.
  
  
• Defense: This Department gets a nice increase, bringing its budget to almost $1 trillion. However, programs involving scientific research and green energy are being cut. There are also some budget gimmicks being used, so it is hard to tell how much the increase really is.
  
  
• Education: Many programs will be hit hard here, including K-12 programs and college funding, especially for low-income Americans. The college work-study program, which allows poor students to work while in college to pay the costs, will be eliminated. The office of civil rights will lose a third of its budget. The only program getting an increase is one that helps charter schools. In other words, the goal is to gut public schools and replace them with charter schools for people who can afford them.
  
  
• Energy: The Inflation Reduction Act that Joe Biden signed had a huge amount of money for the transition to sustainable energy. That will be history. Programs to steer energy investments to low-income and minority communities are gone. Scientific research into new energy technologies is gone. The oil industry is getting a huge return on its investment in Trump's campaign.
  
  
• EPA: The EPA is losing over half its budget. Everything it does will be affected. Among top items are cleaning up toxic waste sites, scientific research on the environment, and a program that tracked down polluters and fined them.
  
  
• Health and Human Services: Interestingly enough, the Affordable Care Act is not being hit. However, NIH, the world's premier organization for doing research on diseases and looking for cures will have its budget cut by 40%. After all, conservatives almost never get sick and if they do, they can just pray for a cure, which generally arrives within 1-2 business days, depending on how busy God is that day. Wasteful programs getting axed include those involving chronic diseases like diabetes. One increase is for HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr.'s Make America Healthy Again program.
  
  
• Homeland Security: Big winner here. FEMA will be gutted and also TSA but there is $44 billion for mass deportations. Also a big increase for the U.S. Secret Service, whose job is to protect the president and other high officials.
  
  
• Housing and Urban Development: Huge cut for rental assistance. Also for programs that aim for economic development in poor areas. A program that helps people investigate housing discrimination is going by the wayside.
  
  
• Interior: Bad news for the National Parks, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and conservation programs.
  
  
• Justice: The FBI will be hit hard to undo the "weaponization" of the FBI against conservatives, even though it is now being run by a conservative. Republicans used to support the police. Another agency taking a big hit is the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. It enforces gun control laws. Big waste, apparently. Luckily, the U.S. does not have a problem with things like school shootings.
  
  
• Labor: The "Make America Skilled Again" president cuts programs that help youth and seniors gain employment. Bye bye, Job Corps. Trump claims it is harmful. It offers free vocational training to people 16-24 to train them for jobs that actually exist and where there is a need for workers. Surely they can find a tutorial on YouTube to learn plumbing or welding on their own.
  
  
• NASA: The NASA budget will be cut by a quarter. The Space Launch System Rocket is dead before it starts. So is the Orion capsule. But there is $1 billion more for Mars-focused efforts. Since Elon Musk is keen on going to Mars, maybe there will be some cushy grants available for SpaceX with an extra $1 billion.
  
  
• State Department: USAID falls under the State Department and it is being gutted. Foreign aid of all kinds will be hit hard because the administration claims it goes to "radical, leftist priorities," especially climate change, DEI, and LGBTQ+ activities. Another $3.2 billion for international disaster assistance is also gone. Funding for the U.N. and W.H.O. are going to be hit hard. A new program, America First Opportunities Fund, will get $2.9 billion. Former officials are calling it a "slush fund" that will allow the administration to spend money abroad in ways Congress doesn't know about and probably wouldn't approve. It could also be used to give foreign companies or governments money—provided they used the money to buy things from companies owned or run by Trump's cronies.
  
  
• Transportation: Small gain here. More money for air traffic control, as well as highway, port, and railroad safety. Trump would prefer not to have another disaster like the derailment in East Palestine, OH. One cut that will not survive first contact with Congress is the "Essential Air Service," which subsidizes air transportation to far-flung congressional districts. Western congresscritters whose districts are far from major airports love it.
  
  
• Treasury: Treasury was largely left alone except for a massive cut to the IRS, so it can't hunt down billionaire tax cheats who have very complicated schemes involving multiple shell companies in foreign jurisdictions that buy and sell assets (e.g., patents) resulting in lower taxes for themselves. It will be interesting to see how the true deficit hawks in Congress, like Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), view cutting the IRS budget, since these cuts will reduce revenue and make the deficit bigger.
  
  
• Veterans Affairs: A bit more money here, especially for veterans seeking medical care outside V.A. hospitals. Anything suggesting "privatization," whether it be in education, space exploration, or care for veterans, tends to get a green light.

Many of the cuts, if implemented, will hit lower-income Americans especially hard. No doubt this was an oversight. Sometimes these things just happen, you know. Specific cuts that will hurt poor people are $27 billion less for housing assistance (which will drive many people into homelessness), LIHEAP (which provides money for heating in winter and cooling in summer), Title I education assistance (which goes to poor schools), and more.

Will the budget sail through Congress unscathed? Don't count on it. Many members are already dissing it. A big problem will be Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who happens to be chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. She is very concerned. She has many objections, especially to things that will not be popular in her blue state during the 2026 elections.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is no longer the leader of the Senate Republican caucus, but he is the chairman of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense and a big hawk on Ukraine and no fan of Russia. He wants much more money for defense. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) is chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee and is with McConnell 100%. He is not as subtle as McConnell and said he opposes the budget's "intent to shred to the bone our military capabilities and support to service members." Doesn't sound like a "Yes, let's pass the budget as is" vote to us.

What about over in the House? House Appropriations chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) said: "But with all due respect to anybody, I think the members have a better understanding of what can pass and what can't than the Executive Branch does." With the chairs of the Appropriations Committees in both chambers up in arms, we do not predict smooth sailing for this budget.

While the new proposal opens a new front in the budget wars, the 2025 budget fight is still ongoing. The SALTy Republicans from blue states have once again told Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) that unless the SALT cap is raised, they are "no" votes on the reconciliation bill. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) suggested raising it to $25,000, but some other blue-state Republicans said that is still too low. Johnson can't afford to lose more than three votes on the bill. The Freedom Caucus is a fervent opponent of raising the cap at all because it would increase the deficit, though recently they have talked big, and then folded faster than a Texas Hold 'em player with 7-2 offsuit when it came time to vote, so who knows. Anyhow, good luck, Mike. (V)