May06

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Candidate News: Congress

We have built up quite a backlog of news about people running for various offices. We intended to do state-level offices today, and Congress later in the week, but the biggest political news of the day yesterday was in the latter category, so we're going to flip the order. Oh well, you know what they say about the best laid plans of mice and men.

Anyhow, here's a rundown of the various congressional candidate news from the last couple of weeks:

• U.S. Senate, Georgia: This is the aforementioned biggest news of the day yesterday, as Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) announced he will take a pass on challenging Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) in 2026. This is presumably an indication that Kemp is keeping his powder dry for a presidential run in 2028. That said, it's not so easy to go from being the guy in charge to being one of a hundred voices in a chorus. Also, Kemp probably took a look at the headwinds that Donald Trump's trade war will create, and at the fact that Trump's approval rating is in a tailspin, and at the fact that midterms tend to go against the incumbent's party, and realized that he was at serious risk of spending a tough year and a half campaigning and fundraising for a coin-flip chance (or worse) at a U.S. Senate seat.
  
  In any case, Ossoff, the DSCC, and anyone who hopes the Democrats will retake the upper chamber in 2026 or 2028 should now get down on their knees and praise the deity of their choice. In hypothetical polling, Kemp had a slight edge on Ossoff (though usually within the margin of error). For example, in a poll commissioned and published by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution a couple of weeks ago, Kemp was at 49% and Ossoff at 46%, with a 3.1% MoE. Against all other hypothetical GOP challengers polled, Ossoff has a comfortable lead, usually between 6 and 10 points. That includes state Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Georgia Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner John F. King and Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins and Rich McCormick.
  
  The hypothetical matchup in which Ossoff does best, however, is up against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. The three times Ossoff vs. Greene has been polled this year, he's led her by 11, 16 and 12 points. And while lesser-known Republicans like King and McCormick might have room to grow their support, Greene is already one of the best-known politicians in Georgia. Despite the fact that the numbers are not good (and she also trails EVERYONE in "what Republican would you like to see as the nominee" polls of Georgia Republican voters), she's been making much noise lately about throwing her hood hat into the ring, bragging that she can beat any Republican contender, save one (presumably she meant Kemp, though she did not give a name).
  
  Greene's budding Senate aspirations might just explain why she posted that odd, semi-literate, critical-of-Trump message to eX-Twitter over the weekend—it's her version of hewing to the center. Though yesterday, she explained that when she declared that Trump was losing the base, she actually meant that... voters are angry with Congress. So, it would seem she hewed a bit too much, and decided to hew back toward the lunatic fringe a bit.
  
  If Greene somehow does enter the race and claim the nomination—and you never know; primary voters tend to be more extreme than general election voters—Ossoff, the DSCC, and anyone who hopes the Democrats will retake the upper chamber in 2026 or 2028 will need to get down on their knees and thank their deity of choice again. Not only is she a godawful candidate, and certainly the weakest opponent Ossoff could reasonably hope to draw, but Georgia law forbids running for two offices at the same time. So, she'd have to give up her House seat to run, meaning that there's a decent chance that Congress would be rid of her entirely by January 3, 2027.
  
  Whatever happens, the Democrats' chances of holding this seat just got much, much better.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) officially has something to be concerned about, as the first Democrat has entered that party's primary with an eye toward unseating her. It's Jordan Wood, who is the son of a pastor and a teacher, is an anti-Citizens United activist, and has worked as chief-of-staff to former representative Katie Porter. That means Wood now has extensive experience in what not to do when running a U.S. Senate campaign. Wood is gay, by the way, and would be angling to be the first LGBTQ person to represent Maine in the U.S. Senate (former representative Mike Michaud already broke that particular glass ceiling for Mainers in the House).
  
  If Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) jumps in, she would clear the field and Wood would be kindling. But Mills is 77, and might not be keen on starting a new career, so there's a pretty good chance she stays out. If so, it could be a real slugfest on the Democratic side, as there are half-a-dozen or so contenders signaling a run, all of them of roughly equal stature. That said, Wood is the only one to take the plunge so far.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, New Hampshire: While things could get complicated for the Democrats in Maine, it looks like they will be pretty simple in next-door New Hampshire. Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-NH) announced that she's not going to mount a bid for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), which leaves Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) as the only man standing on that side of the aisle. And the blue team's bench pretty much consisted of the two representatives, so with Goodlander out, Pappas might well go unchallenged. Meanwhile, all the strong Republican candidates (e.g., Chris Sununu) are already out, while much weaker candidates like Scott Brown and Corey Lewandowski are hemming and hawing. So, you have to like the Democrats' chances for a hold here, despite the open seat.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Michigan: Guess we'll remain in states that are often cold and/or snowy for a while longer. This is another seat that will be left open by the retirement of a Democrat, namely Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). And the primary field on that side of the aisle just grew by one, as Rep. Haley Stevens has declared. She's an excellent fundraiser who knows how to run on kitchen-table issues. That said, her main competition right now is state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who is something of a rock star to Democratic politics-watchers, thanks to several viral speeches she's made. Abdul El-Sayed, who has held municipal office, and who is something of a perennial candidate for statewide office, is also in.
  
  Thus far, the best the Republicans have come up with for this race is former representative Mike Rogers. There's a long list of GOPers who might join him, but while some of them have name recognition (e.g., Ronna McDaniel), none of them strike terror into the hearts of Democrats. It's yet another seat that's looking pretty good for the blue team, assuming that the winner of the Democratic primary isn't too bloody once it's over.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Minnesota: One more cold and snowy state (unless you count Maine when it shows up again), and one more gay candidate. In the Gopher State, the aspiring LGBTQ senator is Rep. Angie Craig (DFL), who announced last week that she aspires to the seat being vacated by Sen. Tina Smith (DFL). Craig is the first gay person to represent Minnesota in the lower chamber, and she hopes to repeat that feat in the upper chamber. She would also be the second out lesbian elected to the Senate (after Tammy Baldwin) and the third to serve (after Baldwin and Laphonza Butler, who was appointed).
  
  Craig has a compelling personal story, going from growing up in a mobile home park to running a multimillion dollar business, and she's also won election to the House four times in a swing district. She's got some serious competition for the nomination from Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL), and some less serious competition from a few lesser-known candidates. Thus far, the Republicans have former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and former NBA player Royce White, who have both underwhelmed. The Democrats are not thrilled to have open seats in three different swingy states, but if it had to happen, well, the ducks look like they are lining up pretty well. First, the Republicans are generally attracting mediocre candidates and second, as we note above, midterms are not only generally bad for the party that holds the White House, but the current president is heading toward historically poor approval ratings. The poor GOP candidate quality and the likely poor environment for the GOP might just be related.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Kentucky: And for our last Senate seat of the day, a Republican-held seat that is also going to be open, and that is also not going to change hands. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is retiring at the end of his current term, and the only Democrat who might plausibly win the seat is Gov. Andy Beshear, who already passed. You might think there would be a feeding frenzy on the GOP side, but not so far. That said, after one flawed candidate (former Kentucky AG and failed gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron) got in, the GOP now has a heavier hitter, as Rep. Andy Barr has declared. Like McConnell, Barr is a wild-eyed, raving, woke leftist. We write that because that is how the anti-tax Club for Growth portrays them both, by virtue of their votes to lift the debt ceiling and not cause the U.S. to default on its national debt. We are hardly experts in Kentucky politics, but we do know that McConnell won election seven times, so maybe the opinion of the Club for Growth doesn't carry much weight.
  
  
• U.S. House, ME-O2: Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) is the blue doggiest Democrat in the House, reflecting the fact that his district is R+4. That makes him a juicy target, but Republicans have tried to knock him off, and have failed each time. But guess who is back from the dead? In an attempt to resurrect his seemingly expired political career, former governor Paul LePage, who calls himself "Donald Trump before Donald Trump," has decided he wants to take a shot at it.
  
  LePage has an above-average amount of baggage from his time as governor. There was a long list of scandals while he was in office, and he also dabbled in racism and antisemitism. He's been living in Florida since his term ended in 2019, which gives him a vaguely carpetbagger-esque vibe. Also, as Susan Collins has demonstrated, ultra-Trumpy does not play too well in Maine. These comeback bids rarely work out, and we see no particular reason to think this one will buck the trend.
  
  
• U.S. House, AZ-05: Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) is running for governor, so his R+10 seat is up for grabs. And the first contender has declared; it's Jay Feely, a very Trumpy fellow who played in the NFL for a dozen years. Feely plans to run on a pro-tariff, pro-harsh-border-policy platform, because those things are doing such wonders for Trump's approval rating these days.
  
  We're not so sure we understand this whole former-athlete-turned-Republican-politician thing, but we wonder if the electoral success of Tommy Tuberville has put wrongheaded ideas into Republicans' minds. Yes, the former coach won his election, but that was in football-obsessed Alabama, and since then the former sports figures haven't done so well (see Walker, Herschel, et al.). And Feely was a kicker, which means he was only barely a football player. He also played for the Jets, the Cardinals, the Bears and the Giants, so he's got vast experience in losing, in all kinds of different ways. In the end, this seat is going to stay in Republican hands, so it's really up to voters in AZ-05 if they want to be represented by a super-Trumpy guy whose main qualification is that he can make field goals.
  
  
• U.S. House, Oversight Chair: Most of the elections we address here are pretty far in the future. Not this one. With Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) stepping down immediately from his position as ranking member of the powerful House Oversight Committee, there was some speculation that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) might try for the gig, having lost the very same job to Connolly at the start of this term.
  
  Yesterday, AOC said she is not interested, and she'll keep her seat on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. Officially, her reason is that she does not think this bid would be any more successful than the first one was. That may be the truth; the Democratic caucus does have a taste for older members, particularly when it comes to leadership of one of the very most important committees. Plus, because AOC left Oversight for Energy and Commerce, she'd first have to win a vote for a special waiver to return to the committee.
  
  All of this said, with the Representative's successful rally tour, and with her pretty clearly taking over as the heir to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), there is much speculation that her lack of interest is because she has bigger fish to fry (like, say, laying the groundwork for a U.S. Senate or a presidential campaign).

And there you have the latest on congressional elections. You can see why we decided to hold the state-level elections until later this week. (Z)