Dem
47
GOP
53
You can take the boy out of the reality show, but you apparently can't take the reality show out of the boy. Donald Trump, who has a well-known taste for the dramatic, decided yesterday to treat trade policy like it's a circus being mounted for the entertainment of the teeming masses, making this announcement on his ghost town of a social media platform:
Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!
Because who doesn't enjoy spending a night on pins and needles, as they wait to see, for example, whether or not their business is going to go under?
What Trump forgets is that with the latest "shocking" episode of The Apprentice, it was pretty easy to maintain a media embargo, since not many people had access to the finished footage, and they could all be fired by the guy on the show who did ACTUAL firing, namely producer Mark Burnett. On the other hand, there are all sorts of people who are privy to the sorts of negotiations that lead to trade pacts. And so, Trump was denied his big reveal by The New York Times, which took less than an hour after his "Truth" to break the news that the "BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY" is the U.K.
That said, even the Times couldn't learn exactly what the nature of the agreement might be. However, when it comes to predictions, take note of the following: (1) Trump does not have the power to unilaterally enter into trade agreements, and (2) As we have pointed out a thousand times before, substantive trade pacts do not get worked out in a week or two. Add it up, and the general guess is that Trump is overselling things, and that what he's actually going to announce is some sort of general framework that will guide the negotiations for the next... 6 months? Year? Two years?
There is one thing that is pretty clear, though: The author of The Art of the Deal has maneuvered himself into a very weak negotiating position. He can't just back down on the tariffs (again) without losing face. On the other hand, the polling continues to be brutal. The latest from YouGov affirms the same basic thing as other recent polls: 75% of respondents believe "Trump's tariffs" (note, NOT "Biden's tariffs") will increase prices, with about two-thirds of those also believing that the tariffs will harm the economy while producing no real benefits. Consequently, his approval is 10 points underwater, with 42% approving and 52% disapproving.
So, despite his braggadocio about people making do with 3 dolls instead of 30, and how a little belt-tightening never hurt anyone (except for those job-creating billionaires), Trump clearly knows it will be a (political) bloodbath if he tries to stay the course for multiple years (or even multiple months). If he can't back down, and he can't hold out long-term, that leaves only one possibility: quick, quick, quick agreements. The folks on the other side of the negotiating table from the U.S. know this, and they might maybe just use it to their advantage, possibly.
We'll learn at 10:00 am. ET today what this "MAJOR TRADE DEAL" really looks like. Though it would certainly serve Trump right, after that picture this weekend, if all of his remaining thunder was stolen by the cardinals agreeing on a pope today. The last couple of conclaves ended on the second day, so it's well within the realm of possibility. (Z)