May13

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Democratic Presidential Candidate of the Week, #35: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT)

We didn't have a chance to do a presidential candidate last week, but we're back on course now. Here are the candidates we've already written up:

40. Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ)
41. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
42. Al Franken
43. Jon Tester
44. Jon Stewart

• Full Name: Christopher Scott Murphy
  
  
• Age on January 20, 2029: 55
  
  
• Background: Like everyone who lives in Connecticut, Murphy was born in New York. His father is a corporate lawyer and his mother is a retired teacher. During his high school years, at Wethersfield High in Wethersfield, CT, it wasn't too much a secret that he was destined for a career in politics, as he was elected class president in each of the 3 years he was eligible (the freshman class did not have a president). He followed that up with twin bachelor's degrees in history and in political science from Williams College, and then a J.D. from the University of Connecticut.
  
  That is a pretty boring biography. Indeed, the fake Chris Murphy that exists on the Internet is kinda more interesting than the real one. By that we mean that he's the subject of a lot of incorrect information, primarily due to mangling of the actual facts. For example, some sources say he was a Rhodes Scholar. This is not true; he did go to Oxford, but as a foreign exchange student during his undergrad years. Other sites say that Murphy earned a Ph.D. That is only true if you adopt a very loose definition of "earned"—in fact, he was given an honorary degree from the University of New Haven (and note, it carried the title usually used for these degrees, namely "Doctor of Humane Letters," and not "Doctor of Philosophy.") Similarly, some sources claim Murphy is Jewish. He's not; he was raised as Congregationalist and now identifies as a non-churchgoing unaffiliated Protestant. We cannot figure out where this particular "fact" came from—maybe it's because his father is a lawyer.
  
  
• Political Experience: Murphy first got involved in Democratic politics while he was in high school, volunteering for various campaigns for statewide office. His mentor was state Sen. Biagio "Billy" Ciotto, who is something of a legendary character in the annals of Connecticut political history. Ciotto worked at the Connecticut DMV for nearly half a century, then retired, ran for office, and spent 12 years as one of the most influential members of the state Senate. He was a master of parliamentary tricks, and in particular liked to put together massive "aircraft carrier" spending bills, where the mountains of pork were kept hidden by complicated legalese, and by OTHER mountains of pork. Presumably Murphy learned a trick or two from Ciotto.
  
  Murphy began his career in office while he was in law school. His first post was on the Southington, CT, planning and zoning commission, serving from 1997-99, and he was elected to the Connecticut state House in 1999 (he graduated law school in 2002). After two terms in the lower chamber of the Connecticut legislature, he was elected to two terms in the upper chamber, and then knocked off 10-term Republican Rep. Nancy Johnson, a victory that was aided enormously by Connecticut's shift from red to blue, and by Johnson's ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
  
  Murphy served three terms in the U.S. House, and then decided to try for the U.S. Senate in 2012. In that race, he effectively vanquished two different people who are not too popular with much of the Democratic Party. The seat was then occupied by Democrat-turned-independent Joe Lieberman, who decided that he did not want to face a challenge from Murphy, and so announced he would not run for reelection. And then, in the actual election, Murphy crushed Linda McMahon, 55% to 43%. He has since been reelected twice, which means his current term runs until 2030. Both reelection victories were by 20 points, so Murphy's effectively going to be a senator for life, if that is what he wants.
  
  
• Signature Issue(s): Murphy's signature issue is actually gun control; he got some bills passed at the state level, and he commenced his term in the U.S. Senate mere weeks after the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, CT. However, you do not run a national campaign in the U.S. that is built around gun control. So, as a presidential candidate, we would guess his signature issue would be rebuilding America's relationship with the world. He's a foreign policy wonk, sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and would have plenty of material after 4 years of Trump v2.0.
  
  
• What Would His Pitch Be?: "I am a lefty in a digestible package." Murphy would not quite put it that way, but his message has strong elements of populism and progressivism, while coming from a very vanilla fellow. In that way, he's somewhat like a three-decades-younger version of Joe Biden. If Democrats want "the safest white boy," to borrow Rep. Jasmine Crockett's (D-TX) phrasing from this weekend, then Murphy certainly fits the profile.
  
  
• Instructive Quote: "I mean, what I argue for is that the Democratic Party should be more overtly populist and more pugilistic, more confrontational in its populism—meaning that you are more regularly naming the individuals, the organizations and the companies that are screwing voters."
  
  
• Completely Trivial Fact: Murphy's favorite writer, a person he endeavors to emulate in his speechwriting, is... George Bernard Shaw.
  
  
• Recent News: Leo XIV has yet to deny that the eX-Twitter account that bears his ex-name is his, so we stick with our assumption that it's real. And Murphy became part of that story because the Pope once retweeted the Senator; it was this message about gun control, sent shortly after the mass shooting in Las Vegas in October 2017: "To my colleagues: your cowardice to act cannot be whitewashed by thoughts and prayers. None of this ends unless we do something to stop it."
  
  
• Strengths for the Democratic Primaries: (1) If the Democrats keep their current primary calendar, then the first three states are Iowa, which loves bland white guys; New Hampshire, which REALLY loves bland white guys, especially from nearby Connecticut; and South Carolina, which also loves bland white guys (remember, they backed Joe Biden in 2020); (2) Outside of Bernie Sanders, Murphy is as good at social media as any member of the Senate; (3) Murphy's message seems to be what Democratic voters these days want to hear.
  
  
• Weaknesses for the Democratic Primaries: (1) If Murphy can't seal the deal in the first three caucuses/primaries, then he starts to run into electorates that are less amenable to him; (2) Murphy will not have the "safe white guy" lane to himself, not by a long shot, and anything he does to separate himself from the pack will almost certainly make him less "safe"; (3) He has little national name recognition, outside of political junkies, and thus far has struggled to break through, despite aggressive efforts on his part.
  
  
• Polls: Murphy is not yet enough of a contender to make the cut in hypothetical Democratic candidates' polls. However, in YouGov's poll of politicians, he's in the Top 100 (out of about 500 overall). That's the good news; the bad news is that he's #99, which translates into a dismal 26% approval rating (the list bottoms out at 15% approval). Others in his neighborhood, for what it's worth, include Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA), Nikki Haley and Andrew Cuomo.
  
  
• How Does the Readership Feel?: We asked readers for their thoughts on Murphy running for president; here are some of those responses (note that we do not read readers' assessments until we have written all other parts of these items):
  
  
  • M.B. in Windsor, CT: Murphy is my Senator, and I think he's been strong in that role. He's been running for President since January 20 of this year, and he's doing so by speaking up and speaking out. There's not much media coverage of his road trips to hold town halls, etc.; to the media, he's unimportant because he's not had any sort of national profile and he comes from one of the smallest states (though we do have five House seats, down from 6 a couple of decades ago before the mass-migration south). I mean, has there ever been a Connecticut president?
    
    I'd vote for Chris. My heart is with Pete Buttigieg and several of the fine women whose names have been bruited about. But none of them is electable, so Chris has my vote at the moment, because when most Congresscritters on both sides of the Capitol are staying stumm (other than Bernie and AOC), it's been mostly up to governors... and Chris Murphy.
    
    
  • E.K.M. in Delaware, OH: Murphy's recent decision to become a firebrand on Sunday shows and in social media has remade his image—from dutiful, blended-in, and bland to a forceful detailer of Donald Trump's sins against democracy. He remains only a few steps ahead of Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) in the excitement department, but I think he's moving fast in showing voters that he's smart, honest and a very deep thinker. He's obviously running in '28 and working hard on it.
    
    
  • K.H. in Scotch Plains, NJ: I think Murphy would be an ideal candidate. He has Senate experience, having served for over a decade, he's not particularly old, he has put up fiercer resistance to this current president and administration than the vast majority of his colleagues, he's a non-threatening-looking white guy, and he speaks to his constituents in Connecticut and anyone looking toward him with an urgency about what's happening, what he's trying to do to help, and what others can try to do to help. He gives a sh**, and yet, at the same time, recognizes the weaknesses of the Democratic Party both past and present.
    
    He looks like he wants to do everything he can to unite it and do whatever he and it can to stymie and thwart the despicable plans and preposterous ideas of the administration, and I get the feeling he'd be good at conveying it to people who are ordinarily non-political or "soft Trump voters" (the people who aren't really evil, but who just thought the man would basically just fix inflation and do very little to rock the boat or cut essential government services the way he has been) who are beginning to recognize the damage he is doing. I've been a fan of Murphy for years now and would love to see him run. He knows what he's doing.
    
    
  • J.W. in San Francisco, CA: Interestingly enough, Chris Murphy would be the first Polish-American president. That may be an asset in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. He is also flooding the zone against Donald Trump.
    
    However, he is from Connecticut, a wealthy, socially liberal but fiscally moderate state, and I don't know how well that would play. Like it or not, there is a lot of antipathy towards the insurance industry, and I don't know if a Connecticutter could get elected.
    
    
  • M.M. in San Diego, CA: Chris Murphy's accurate analysis of the changed media landscape, especially who's who in the podcast zoo, is laying the groundwork for getting the Democrats' message out to a demographic that they rarely connect with. If he chooses to run, he may have built-in support from an audience he has helped educate. If not, he would be invaluable as campaign and communications director on someone else's campaign (Pete Buttigieg? AOC? Ro Khanna?)
    
    
  • N.S. in Milwaukee, WI: I had hoped you would rank Chris Murphy considerably higher on this list. If you could invent a candidate who could make Hillary and Bernie sing kumbaya, Chris Murphy may well be that person. He'd be in a political Goldilocks zone that few other candidates could occupy: just old enough to have significant high-stakes experience, just young enough to communicate with Gen Z; just polished enough to exude command, just loose enough to avoid phoniness; just progressive enough to please the activists, just inoffensive enough to be a safe pair of hands; just visible enough to plant his seed, just unknown enough to come into it without major baggage. Being outside one of those limits is why Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA); Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA); Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), AOC; Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA)—in that order, by the qualities mentioned—are less solid candidates, in my view. Not even Barack Obama was in the zone across all of those qualities. Of the likely Democratic field, only Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) stacks up well in similar ways.
  
  
• The Bottom Line: You never know, but Murphy feels more like a 2032 or 2036 candidate than a 2028 candidate. And note, we did not create these rankings. The readers did, with their votes in our survey, back in December.

Next week, it's #34, Mitch Landrieu. If readers have comments about Landrieu running for president in 2028, please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com.