Dem
47
GOP
53
Another day, and another round of stories about the "free" jumbo jet that the Qatari royal family wants to, in effect, give to Donald Trump. Remember those kids who are going to have to do without 30 dolls at Christmas? Well, it looks like the President is going to have to prepare for a similar sort of disappointment.
It could not be clearer that the whole scheme is logistically implausible, or impossible. It took Boeing about 3 months to build a standard 747. The new Air Force One planes have been works in progress for a decade. That would seem to suggest that all the special comms and security and the like takes... well, years to execute. We had a comment yesterday from reader E.S. in Maine, who knows about these things; here's another, courtesy of G.W. in Oxnard, CA:
I agree with what E.S. in Maine wrote about the Qatar Air Force One replacement, though I actually think E.S. undersold the issue. The proposed Air Force One replacement is more ill-considered than it seems on the surface. I have some experience with military secure communications and considerable experience with high-tech military equipment (legally prohibited from elaborating). It will likely cost far too much and take more time than the current president has in office (unless he becomes king sometime soon).
Consider the Air Force One replacement program. In 2016, then candidate Trump, now Convicted Felon Trump (CFT), said the program to replace the Air Force One fleet was too expensive and should be canceled. In 2018, CFT twisted Boeing's metaphorical arm and got a reduction in the price. Since then, Boeing has scheduled delivery for 2021, then 2022, and the current delivery is scheduled for 2027. Boeing is over $2.5B in the hole on the contract and is likely to lose more before it gets done. Now consider that there is only one contractor in the world with the necessary expertise to refit the Qatar flying palace to be usable as Air Force One, namely... Boeing. It is possible that Boeing may be willing to low-bid the contract to avoid angering CFT, but I doubt it. Air Force One is required to be able to endure radiation from a nearby nuclear explosion and to be secure from electronic surveillance. To meet these requirements, it would be necessary to remove and replace all the electronics with much more expensive systems and remove all the pretty interior to install shielding.
If there isn't a law covering the minimum requirements for Air Force One, there should be, but I suppose it is possible CFT could waive these requirements. Best case, if just the necessary communications equipment were installed, there would be little time between when it was operational and when it would be time to begin the process of decommissioning the plane. This brings up a frightening possibility: There really isn't anyone to stop CFT from transferring the aircraft to his presidential library foundation with the secure communications equipment still installed. Only the Congress, the Secretary of Defense, and the Attorney General have any authority, as the courts have zero say in what CFT does with Air Force One until after noon, Jan 20, 2029. If succeeded by a Republican president, the succeeding president probably wouldn't do much or anything to recover the secure equipment.
The idea of CFT leaving office in a bitter and resentful mood with a plane containing some of the most sensitive secure communications equipment the government owns should be concerning to all. Suppose CFT let representatives of a hostile foreign power, including engineers who are experts on secure communications, visit the plane. Suppose CFT took a trip in the flying palace to a hostile foreign power. The best-case scenario is for CFT to back down and not accept the gift (bribe?). The second-best-case scenario is CFT accepts the gift (bribe?) and the contract negotiations never complete, and no taxpayer dollars go to the project other than having to pay to store and guard it and it transfers to the presidential library foundation unaltered. The second scenario is the best-case scenario for CFT, because the plane will remain in its opulent state and would not suffer from the modifications. After all, he won't be able to use it as president, anyway.
Thanks, G.W.!
Of course, the members of Congress, etc. aren't reading what our readers have to say. However, there were a number of stories yesterday published by major media outlets which lay out the same basic logistical problems. For example, this piece from NBC News is headlined "Turning Qatari 747 into Air Force One could cost $1 billion and take years, experts say," and also helpfully points out that if the government spends a billion dollars to make a $400 million plane usable, that's not actually a cost savings.
Beyond the logistical issues, there's also the other obvious problem, namely "What does Qatar want in exchange for this 'generous' gesture?" There have now been some articles on that subject, too, like this one, which points out that Qatar would really like access to more U.S.-built defense equipment (it's already a large purchaser, but wants to be an even larger purchaser). The Qataris also export a lot of liquified natural gas, and would very much love to sell more of it to the U.S., perhaps with the aid of American extraction technology.
Finally, while not as important as the other two issues, the optics here are very bad. Qatar is in bed with Iran, and so is hostile to Israel. A large portion of the MAGA base does not like that. Also, America is supposed to be a mighty capitalist power, and so should not need handouts of used planes from a nation with less than 1% of the population of the United States.
For these reasons, presumably, the big Republican guns in the Senate are now squawking about the proposition. We're not just talking Susan Collins (ME) expressing "concern." We're talking Senate Majority Leader John Thune (SD) saying he is not comfortable with the idea, Ted Cruz (TX) declaring that it presents too many security risks, and Rand Paul urging Trump to reject the offer. This is what senators do to send the message "We encourage you not to push your luck on this, and risk public embarrassment at the hands of the Senate."
Trump, for his part, is still trying to stay the course. On his meme-stock social media platform, after whining that the current Air Force One just isn't fancy enough, he wrote:
The Boeing 747 is being given to the United States Air Force/Department of Defense, NOT TO ME! It is a gift from a Nation, Qatar, that we have successfully defended for many years. It will be used by our Government as a temporary Air Force One, until such time as our new Boeings, which are very late on delivery, arrive. Why should our military, and therefore our taxpayers, be forced to pay hundreds of millions of Dollars when they can get it for FREE from a country that wants to reward us for a job well done. This big savings will be spent, instead, to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Only a FOOL would not accept this gift on behalf of our Country.
Either Trump is stupid/naive enough to believe there are no strings attached here, or else he knows full well there ARE strings and he's just being dishonest. These strike us as being roughly equally likely.
In the end, there are limits to Trump's political capital. There's also the problem that when it comes to the $1 billion needed to overhaul the plane, he doesn't actually control the capital. We think he is very likely to back down, even though he so very badly wants to have that plane for his retirement. If he doesn't, then we'll get to see if the senators find their spines, and follow through on their implied threat. (Z)