Election News, Part I: The Most Competitive Governor's Races
There are two gubernatorial races this year and 36 next year. Some of the races
are expected to be competitive,
particularly the half-dozen races listed below:
- Arizona (2026): Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) is up for reelection in a state Donald Trump won.
She barely beat Kari Lake last time. If she draws Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ)—who has an industrial-strength
candidate-quality problem—as her opponent, she is home-free. If Karrin Taylor Robson wins the nomination, it will
be a real horse race. Keep in mind that the Arizona GOP base tends to be dominated by MAGA types who favor "ideal"
candidates over candidates who can win (hence Kari Lake's two different, failed runs for office). So, Biggs very well
could advance, despite being the much weaker general election candidate. In fact, the most recent poll of Arizona
Republican primary voters gave Biggs a 29-point lead over Robson, 45% to 16%.
- Georgia (2026): Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is term limited. Georgia AG Chris Carr (R) is running and
Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) is expected to run. On the other side, Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA) started running, but then
suspended her campaign to take care of her ailing husband. She hasn't said if she is coming back. Former Atlanta mayor
Keisha Lance Bottoms will probably run. Stacey Abrams has twice run and twice lost, but could conceivably try a third
time.
- Michigan (2026): Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is term-limited. Secretary of State Jocelyn
Benson (D) is in, along with Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D) and Genessee County Sheriff Chris Swanson (D). On the
Republican side, there are a bunch of medium-hitters, by which we mean "candidates with some name recognition, but not
enough clout to push rivals out of the race, and so not entitled to be called heavy-hitters." That includes former state
AG Mike Cox, Rep. John James, and Minority Leader of the Michigan Senate Aric Nesbitt. Cox and James have both run
statewide before, and lost badly.
- Nevada (2026): Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) pulled off an upset win in 2022 when he defeated
incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak. He was the only Republican to flip a governor's mansion that year. Can he survive if
there is a blue wave? Sisolak might try for a comeback and AG Aaron Ford (D) is known to be interested. One peculiarity
of Nevada is that the population is very transient. People come and leave the state all the time, so politicians have to
keep reintroducing themselves to the voters.
- Virginia (2025): This is one of the two gubernatorial elections this year (along
with New Jersey), and the candidates are already locked and loaded. On the Democratic side, it's former representative
Abigail Spanberger, who was unopposed for her party's nomination. On the Republican side, it's Lt. Gov. Winsome
Earle-Sears, who was also unopposed, but with an asterisk. That asterisk is that many Virginia Republicans think
Earle-Sears is not Trumpy enough, and so two MAGA Republicans announced challenges to her. They failed to gather the
necessary signatures for a run, and had to drop out, but it does suggest Earle-Sears may have trouble unifying GOP
voters behind her. With rare exceptions, the party that DOES NOT hold the White House tends to win the Virginia
governorship, which augurs well for Spanberger. Polls of the race have been all over the place, ranging from "it's a
tie" to "Spanberger is up by 15." In the six polls conducted in 2025, Spanberger has been up by an average of 6.3
points.
- Wisconsin (2026): The Badger State does not have term limits, so Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI)
could run for a third term; he hasn't said yet. If he opts out, the chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, Ben
Wikler, might run. No high-profile Republican is in yet; the only declared candidate is an unknown county executive
named Josh Schoemann. Even Josh Schoemann's wife is asking "Who is Josh Schoemann?" Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) might
possibly run, while businessman Tim Michels might take another bite at the apple, having come up short in both a U.S.
Senate race in 2024 and in the most recent gubernatorial election. Wisconsin is perennially a very close state, so it
can always go either way, though if Evers jumps in, the Democrats will be solid favorites.
Many of the other races are basically predictable in advance, but sometimes there is a surprise,
especially if a candidate stumbles or a nominee has a candidate quality problem. (V & Z)
This item appeared on www.electoral-vote.com. Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news,
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