May19

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Election News, Part I: The Most Competitive Governor's Races

There are two gubernatorial races this year and 36 next year. Some of the races are expected to be competitive, particularly the half-dozen races listed below:

• Arizona (2026): Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) is up for reelection in a state Donald Trump won. She barely beat Kari Lake last time. If she draws Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ)—who has an industrial-strength candidate-quality problem—as her opponent, she is home-free. If Karrin Taylor Robson wins the nomination, it will be a real horse race. Keep in mind that the Arizona GOP base tends to be dominated by MAGA types who favor "ideal" candidates over candidates who can win (hence Kari Lake's two different, failed runs for office). So, Biggs very well could advance, despite being the much weaker general election candidate. In fact, the most recent poll of Arizona Republican primary voters gave Biggs a 29-point lead over Robson, 45% to 16%.
  
  
• Georgia (2026): Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is term limited. Georgia AG Chris Carr (R) is running and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) is expected to run. On the other side, Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA) started running, but then suspended her campaign to take care of her ailing husband. She hasn't said if she is coming back. Former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms will probably run. Stacey Abrams has twice run and twice lost, but could conceivably try a third time.
  
  
• Michigan (2026): Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is term-limited. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) is in, along with Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D) and Genessee County Sheriff Chris Swanson (D). On the Republican side, there are a bunch of medium-hitters, by which we mean "candidates with some name recognition, but not enough clout to push rivals out of the race, and so not entitled to be called heavy-hitters." That includes former state AG Mike Cox, Rep. John James, and Minority Leader of the Michigan Senate Aric Nesbitt. Cox and James have both run statewide before, and lost badly.
  
  
• Nevada (2026): Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) pulled off an upset win in 2022 when he defeated incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak. He was the only Republican to flip a governor's mansion that year. Can he survive if there is a blue wave? Sisolak might try for a comeback and AG Aaron Ford (D) is known to be interested. One peculiarity of Nevada is that the population is very transient. People come and leave the state all the time, so politicians have to keep reintroducing themselves to the voters.
  
  
• Virginia (2025): This is one of the two gubernatorial elections this year (along with New Jersey), and the candidates are already locked and loaded. On the Democratic side, it's former representative Abigail Spanberger, who was unopposed for her party's nomination. On the Republican side, it's Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who was also unopposed, but with an asterisk. That asterisk is that many Virginia Republicans think Earle-Sears is not Trumpy enough, and so two MAGA Republicans announced challenges to her. They failed to gather the necessary signatures for a run, and had to drop out, but it does suggest Earle-Sears may have trouble unifying GOP voters behind her. With rare exceptions, the party that DOES NOT hold the White House tends to win the Virginia governorship, which augurs well for Spanberger. Polls of the race have been all over the place, ranging from "it's a tie" to "Spanberger is up by 15." In the six polls conducted in 2025, Spanberger has been up by an average of 6.3 points.
  
  
• Wisconsin (2026): The Badger State does not have term limits, so Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) could run for a third term; he hasn't said yet. If he opts out, the chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, Ben Wikler, might run. No high-profile Republican is in yet; the only declared candidate is an unknown county executive named Josh Schoemann. Even Josh Schoemann's wife is asking "Who is Josh Schoemann?" Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) might possibly run, while businessman Tim Michels might take another bite at the apple, having come up short in both a U.S. Senate race in 2024 and in the most recent gubernatorial election. Wisconsin is perennially a very close state, so it can always go either way, though if Evers jumps in, the Democrats will be solid favorites.

Many of the other races are basically predictable in advance, but sometimes there is a surprise, especially if a candidate stumbles or a nominee has a candidate quality problem. (V & Z)