Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), who was in the midst of his ninth term in the House of Representatives, passed away at the age of 75. His passing is not unexpected, as he announced just last month that his esophageal cancer had returned, and that he was therefore giving up his plum position as ranking member of the House Oversight Committee.
Connolly had a long career in public service. After completing his education, which included a Master's degree from the Kennedy School of Government, he served as a staffer for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for 10 years, from 1979-89. In that capacity, he worked closely with a senator from Delaware, a fellow named Biden. After 6 years working for a think tank, Connolly ran for and won a seat on the Fairfax (VA) County Board of Supervisors. He served there for 15 years before moving on to what proved to be a 16-year career in the House. Broadly speaking, he was liberal on social issues and moderate on economic and foreign affairs issues. That's also a pretty good description of Biden and, whaddya know, Connolly voted with Biden 100% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight (RIP).
Naturally, everyone is saying nice things about Connolly (although J.D. Vance has not weighed in yet, and with him, you never know). As an example, we'll pass along the comment from Rep. James Comer (R-KY), who is chair of the Oversight Committee, and who often locked horns with Connolly: "He was a dedicated public servant who represented Virginia's 11th Congressional District with honor and integrity. We mourn the loss of our friend and colleague, and our thoughts and prayers are with his family during this difficult time." That is called "being classy."
With Connolly's death, the 220-213 Republican majority in the House becomes a 220-212 majority. That does not actually help Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) all that much, especially since Connolly was not present for the last month or so, anyhow. With Connolly present, and all Democrats sticking together, three GOP defections meant "the bill passes, 217-216," while four defections meant "the bill fails, 216-217." Without Connolly, and again with all Democrats sticking together, three GOP defections means "the bill passes, 217-215" and four defections means "the bill fails, 216-216," since a tie vote is not enough for passage.
There is no question that, once a replacement is elected, the seat will remain in Democratic hands, as Connolly's now-vacant district, VA-11, is D+18. Virginia law instructs Gov. Glenn Youngkin to call a special election, but is entirely silent on timeline. In theory, he could wait until December of next year, and still be within the letter of the law. That said, because Virginia has a general election scheduled for this year anyhow, the Governor will likely set things up so the seat is filled then. If so, that means that, barring any other deaths or resignations, Johnson will keep his 220-212 majority until September 23, when the good people of AZ-07 will choose a replacement for Raúl Grijalva.
Incidentally, the last eight members of Congress to die in office were all Democrats. Probably that's just a coincidence, but maybe not, because there was also a run of nine Democrats in a row from December 15, 2007 (Julia Carson) to June 3, 2013 (Frank Lautenberg). The last time the Republicans had a run like that was back in the 1920s. (Z)