Dem
47
GOP
53
Ohio is the latest state to do a new midterm gerrymander. Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina have already done so and Indiana is working on it. If the Supreme Court puts the rest of the Voting Rights Act out of its misery, 5-10 states in the South will each eliminate all majority-Black districts in their states.
Ohio Democrats did escape the worst-case scenario, though. Two Democrats, Marcy Kaptur and Greg Landsman, saw their districts get redder, but not impossibly red. In a blue wave, they might survive. Here is an analysis of the old and new Ohio maps.
As the table above indicates, Landsman's district went from D+3 to R+5. That is an 8-point shift. But in a blue wave, an incumbent Democrat can win in an R+5 district. It is tough, but not impossible. Also, Landsman greatly overperformed last time, winning by 9 points. With an 8-point headwind, he might still pull it off by 1 point.
Kaptur's district went from R+3 to R+8. That will be a steep hill to climb, but she is well-known in much of the district and an experienced campaigner. In fact, she is the longest serving woman in congressional history. She was first elected in 1982, 43 years ago, and has won the seat 22 times in all. She knows her district pretty well and the voters there know her. Like Landsman, Kaptur is an overperformer. She ran 8 points ahead of Kamala Harris in 2024, winning by 1 point. Her personal brand is clearly worth a lot. In a blue wave, she might be able to hang on. On the other hand, Emilia Sykes got a break, going from D+2 district to a D+4 district, so she is a bit safer now.
Depending on whether Florida, Virginia and states in the deep South do midterm gerrymandering, the Republican gain from these stunts could be something in the range of 5-12 seats. On the other hand, in the latest NBC House generic poll, the Democrats are +8. Prior to this year's redistricting, there were 59 House Republicans in R+7 or bluer districts. All of those are potentially competitive in an election where Democrats get 50% of the House vote vs. 42% for the Republicans, as the NBC poll shows. The same poll shows that Americans blame the Republicans more than the Democrats for the shutdown 52% to 42%. (V)