Dem
47
GOP
53
Today, we reach a couple of inflection points when it comes to the federal government shutdown. First, by the time you read this, it will be the longest shutdown in American history, at 36 days and counting. It is true that is less impressive than it sounds, since they did not shut the government down prior to the 1970s. Still, Donald Trump has been in office for both of the two-longest shutdowns. Depending on your perspective, he is either doing something very right or very wrong.
The other inflection point, of course, is yesterday's elections. Certainly, the strong Democratic performance is going to stiffen the resolve of members of the blue team, some of whom might have been wavering. At the same time, what happened yesterday surely has to make some Republicans nervous. Not the one who most matters, we would guess, but some of them. Maybe even enough to start hammering out some sort of subsidy-saving, recission-proof compromise.
A couple of weeks ago, we surveyed the readership, to get their views on the shutdown and how it will unfold. As part of that, we also got close to a thousand comments. We thought that today would be an ideal day to share the full results, and some of the comments. We launched the survey on Monday, Oct. 20, and a couple of days later, we shared this one piece of the results, of when the readership thinks this is likely to finally end:
| Timeframe | Readers Predicting |
| By the end of this week | 0.5% |
| By the end of this month | 6.3% |
| In the first 2 weeks of November | 33.3% |
| In the last 2 weeks of November | 35.9% |
| Sometime in December | 14.7% |
| Not until 2026 | 9.3% |
As you can see, 6.8% of respondents have already missed the mark, and another 33.3% have to be getting nervous. Here is a selection of comments from readers who think they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, even if that light might be a little dim right now:
W.R. in Henderson, NV, writes: Trump will move quickly after the elections in Virginia and New Jersey, plus the mayoral race in New York City. The Republicans will lose significantly and from Trump on down to Congressional leadership and membership, they will feel the pain and want to end the shutdown as soon as possible.
F.I. from Philadelphia, PA, writes: I'm assuming that the shutdown won't be over before Election Day. To that end, it's not unreasonable to assume that the combination of the approval of California's Prop 50, the retention of the judges in Pennsylvania, and the victories of Zohran Mamdani and Abigail Spanberger, will give the blue team more motivation to stick to their guns here.
B.F. in Madison, WI, writes: I think momentum swings to the Democrats when people start seeing how Obamacare premium increases will personally affect them. The combination of interfering with Thanksgiving travel and a disruption to Black Friday sales will be what finally forces MAGA to cave.
S.A.K. in Karnataka, India, writes: With someone like Trump in office, all bets are off. Having said that, I think the straw that will break the camel's back will be the fear of millions of peoples' travel plans over Thanksgiving going awry. If that comes to pass it would be all over the news and very hard to explain away.
C.B. in Burnsville, MN, writes: Thanksgiving travel will be the next major affects-lots-of-likely-voters event, and so is my pick for when one side will cave. Which one? Got me...
N.C. in Los Altos CA, writes: Everyone's going to come out looking bad. The real fight's over recissions. Those are key to OMB Director Russell Vought's plans, and he'll keep noting how much power they give Trump every time they meet. My guess is we'll see a compromise just before Thanksgiving where some recissions are made subject to filibusters, but not all, and then Trump will gleefully wave his magic Sharpie and defund nearly every Democrat priority except Obamacare.
E.D. in Tempe, AZ, writes: I project that, to end the shutdown, it will take the disrupted Thanksgiving travel in the rear view mirror, and the ensuing pressure from their constituents to bring the Republicans to the negotiation table, who are otherwise enjoying the reduced spending during the shutdown, and the pokes in the eyes that they believe they are giving to the Democrats.
C.B. in California, MD, writes: Not until people are unable to buy Christmas presents and this hits the retail sector hard and in a noticeable way will this shutdown end. Hungry kids won't do it. Airplane crashes won't do it. Only poor sales will do it.
We also asked readers to speculate as to how long the shutdown would last. The site we used for surveys added a little twist we didn't know about, but with a little math, the average prediction could be teased out of the numbers, and it was 43 days. If "the wisdom of the crowds" is correct, then that would mean an end to the shutdown on December 1. We also asked if this would become the longest shutdown on record (again, we were already at the 20 day mark, so the record was 15 days away). 86.2% of readers correctly guessed the record would be broken.
Here are a few comments from folks who don't quite see a light at the end of the tunnel (or who think there IS no light):
J.B. in Clarksville, TN, writes: I'm a soldier stationed at Fort Campbell, KY. Politically, I lean left...ish, unlike many of my fellow service members, who tend to be more conservative and largely supported Trump. I believe the real breaking point in this government shutdown will come when troops stop receiving pay.
While many of my peers may not feel the urgency now, I wonder how their views might shift once paychecks are missed. At that point, I expect a flood of angry letters and phone calls to their Congressmen and Senators—not just from servicemembers, but from their families and friends as well. Military retirees and those relying on VA benefits will also add to the pressure.
Eventually, the chorus of voices demanding an end to the shutdown will grow too loud to ignore. I suspect Republicans MIGHT be forced to offer concessions to Democrats just to bring it to a close. Though that is heavily dependent on who is blamed, overall, for the shutdown.
K.M. in Centennial, CO, writes: The shutdown will end when Trump gets involved. He will not wiggle until the threat of Jeffrey Epstein has passed, meaning until a sizable number of Republicans have removed their support for the pending release of Epstein documents.
C.R. in St. Louis, MO, writes: Trump's inability to stay on message ("Squirrel!") will undermine his messaging while the drum continues to beat. The Democrats have no rational reason to believe Trump will abide by any compromises. He will use recission to negate any "win" the Democrats get. I don't see how this ends soon unless Republicans cave on the recission language. The good news is that recission isn't overly popular with Senators on either side.
D.M. in McLean, VA, writes: This won't end until Trump's supporters feel it directly. As many of them are receiving ACA coverage, it will get real for them when they see their 2026 premiums. The condition many Republicans suffer from, a distinct lack of empathy, won't shield them when the effects are personal.
C.J. in Des Moines, IA, writes: It'll only end when Trump arrests all the elected Democrats.
C.J. in Beacon, NY, writes: This just doesn't seem like any previous shutdown. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has too much at stake to let the House re-open. Trump seems to "find" money for the things he deems important. I don't see this ending any time soon.
V.R. in Surprise, AZ, writes: This will be the longest shutdown ever because that is what Trump wants. He thrives on being cruel to others, especially when it's not his base. He showed us what he thinks of over half of Americans with that AI poo-poo video. When will the other half wake up and when will the media actually care to report?
B.C. in Norristown, PA, writes: This shutdown will not end until Trump is out of office. He clearly doesn't need Congress to govern; he does it all via executive orders and threats. Insofar as people not getting paid, how much has he ever been shown to care about that? We're in this for the long haul.
J.G. in Managua, Nicaragua, writes: Things are looking bleak from here in one of the countries which may be targeted as one of the "distractions," like Venezuela and Colombia. If Vought and Stephen Miller have their way the shutdown will never end. A permanent state of emergency will be declared and the transition to authoritarianism will be complete.
S.D. in York, England, UK, writes: My "how long" in days was 1,188. Which is the number of days until the January 20, 2029 inauguration. Hard to see a shutdown not being the ONLY campaign issue at that point.
The next question we asked was: "Donald Trump's average approval rating right now, per CNN, is 41%. What will it be on the day the shutdown ends?" The average guess was 37.4%. Not a question that we know the correct answer to as yet, but we can report that his average approval in the CNN aggregate is now down to 40%.
Here are a few reader comments specifically about Trump and his fellow Republicans:
S.O.S. in Madison, WI, writes: When in doubt, the dotard will chicken out.
W.B. in Iowa City, IA, writes: The shutdown is being made part of the plan—it will be purposefully drawn out in the hopes that people will get desperate and violent. That will be the excuse needed to put more troops into "cities being burned to the ground." It will also be an excuse to dissolve Congress—since it clearly can't get anything done—and extend the Unitary Executive theory of government. Trump will take credit for reopening the government, and he will require people to praise him for his firm, decisive leadership.
S.B.J. in Albany, NY, writes: The moment the Republicans think the shutdown is hurting them, they will pull out the "nuclear option" and pass the CR with a simple majority. The message will be that Republicans found a way to stop Democrats from keeping the shutdown going. Trump will see a slight improvement in polling numbers as a result.
R.T. San Marcos, TX, writes: There is no good outcome for Trump—either he caves on the Obamacare subsidies and the Democrats get some of the credit. Or, he "wins" and the Obamacare subsidies are non-existent and a lot of people are very upset. And, then, there is the discharge petition...
W.M. in Livonia, MI, writes: Personally, I'm rooting for natural causes to end the shutdown any day now.
J.P. in Chicago, IL, writes: It seems like the house of cards is so entangled that it will come down together: Shutdown, BBB, Epstein, tariffs. Trump will have the right, left and center unified against him.
Anonymous in Aliquippa, PA, writes: If the subsidies are not renewed, the concept of "early retirement" (i.e., leaving the workforce voluntarily before the traditional retirement age of 65 when Medicare kicks in) will become a fantasy concept for the middle class, and Republicans will pay a severe price in the 2026 midterms as a result.
E.H. in Chula Vista, CA, writes: I've noticed that the online trolling by pro-Trump people has significantly declined. Which either means there are a lot fewer of them now, or it's no longer fun to do it anymore.
The last question we asked was: "What will the Democrats get at the end of the shutdown?" Here are those numbers:
| Result | Readers Predicting |
| Two or more major concessions (e.g., extended Obamacare subsidies AND some sort of ban on recission) | 17.4% |
| One major concession (e.g., extended Obamacare subsidies) | 48.5% |
| A promise from Republicans to discuss the Democrats' issues, but no actual concessions | 23.1% |
| Nothing, not even a promise to discuss the Democrats' issues | 11% |
And here are some reader comments on the Democrats' side of this:
J.B. in Roseville, MN, writes: With the turn out from No Kings, I hope this gives the Democrats the spine to keep the shutdown going. The only way they will win is if they give some token concession so Trump can pretend he got a win from this. I also hope our country survives, or maybe Minnesota will just join Canada, eh?
T.C. in Whittier, CA, writes: Trump clearly thinks he's invincible right now, so the Democratic leadership will need spines of steel to bring him to heel. I have my doubts, however, about Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and their resolve. I can't shake this feeling that the Congressional Democrats aren't playing the same game as Trump and therefore don't know what the rules are and therefore how to beat him. I do think that some of the governors do get it (Newsom and J.B. Pritzker, D-IL), but not so much the D.C. Democratic leadership.
Anonymous in Las Vegas, NV, writes: This is one of the most important moments in American history. Health care is by far my most important issue, and why I vote Democratic almost every election regardless of candidate. I am PROUD of the Democrats for fighting for this, I always felt Barack Obama and especially Joe Biden were not strong enough with the power they had, I enthusiastically voted for Sen Bernie Sanders (I-VT) because his whole life his focus has been health care for all. My father was a clinical psychologist who helped people, yet he could never have health care because of a preexisting condition (Crohn's Disease). Every time he went to the hospital for surgery it bankrupted him. This is a DOCTOR we are talking about.
Q.M. in Manville, NJ, writes: The Democrats need to up their messaging game, because as far as I can tell, the only thing they're currently trying is my patience.
D.R. in Dublin, Ireland, writes: The Democrats upping their comms game is crucial: posting all the time, using short-format attention-grabbing platforms (TikTok, Instagram, etc.) to reach the disengaged, as well as traditional media, town halls etc.
T.A.H. in Santa Monica, CA, writes: The Democrats need to hold on and show they can fight. No one trusts a quitter. They need to remember that Trump's main appeal is his apparent forcefulness. Can Schumer grow enough of a spine to last? Who knows.
R.H. in San Antonio, TX, writes: In the end Democrats will get subsidies restored, but likely rescinded down the road. Even with that, it's a win for Democrats in terms of mood and messaging for the midterms. To be clear, I don't believe mood and messaging is their goal (actually helping people is) but it's the price Republicans will pay.
Anonymous in Lincoln, MT, writes: I think the Democrats have chosen this as the hill to die on and they are right to do it. They won't surrender.
A.R. in Austin, TX, writes: I gotta say, I'm mighty proud of the way that Democrats took an awful hand and have done a pretty decent job of sticking together and raising awareness of the issues of the expiring ACA subsidies, and are apparently (at least according to the polling that I've seen) not taking any of the blame. I dare say that Schumer learned his lesson from the previous budget expiration and is doing his best to make amends with the base. This is what we've wanted to see all along!
Anonymous in Middletown, NY, writes: I agree with everyone who has said Democrats should add "and release all the Epstein files!" to their demands. What have they got to lose?
Let us add a few reminders that the effects of the shutdown are already very real for some people:
P.D. in Lanham, MD, writes: A lengthy shutdown will be the final straw that tips the economy over into a recession. I know someone who is waiting to start collecting on her ex-husband's federal pension, which will not be processed until after the shutdown ends. In the meantime, she's homeless (except she is sleeping in my living room, and I'm feeding her).
Anonymous in Lexington, KY, writes: My Fed-employee next-door neighbor was fired by the DOGEs mistakenly, brought back, and is now suffering under the shutdown. So sorry for him, his wife, and their 4-year-old son. I marched for them and will feed them if they need it.
X.B. in Silver Spring, MD, writes: Many of my neighbors are federal employees or contractors. About half are looking for new jobs. Literally none believe this ends quickly or well.
L.G.F. in Poulsbo, WA, writes: My husband has been working without pay. He was offered the early retirement option and accepted. On April 30, they told him he could not retire early, as he was a needed worker. Around October 7, he could no longer get into his e-mail. Then his computer access card quit working. He went to talk to IT but they could not help him because the computer said he had retired. He had to send an e-mail on his home e-mail to one person back east to try and get it resolved. As of October 20, it has not been resolved. All of his training records have vanished. He got a notice that they would be cashing out his sick pay and, if he is still working, he would be in debt for however much money he was paid and his sick leave would be gone. Meanwhile, the people who could fix this are furloughed and the one guy back east is not responding to his e-mails. My husband has to go in and cannot take time off except pre-approved time off or sick leave. Only the best people!
L.R.H. in Oakland, CA, writes: I'm already seeing Bluesky posts about outrageous ACA premium increases. I hope everyone is aware that the BBB and the Republicans are responsible.
We heard from many readers who pointed out the system is broken:
D.W. in Ann Arbor, MI, writes: It shocks me that our government even operates this way, with budgets that "expire." We should have a standard federal budget, say a monthly one, and of course Congress should set it and have the authority to change it, but no action should mean no change, not a shutdown.
A.S. in Potsdam, Germany, writes: In the short term, tools like government shutdowns or filibusters of votes are a means of curbing Republican power. In the long term, however, they are extremely dangerous. The 60% hurdle for the budget blocks or slows down EVERY government. These blockades thus undermine the esteem and support of Congress, the democratically elected body, and enable approval for rule-ignoring autocrats or fascists like Trump.
I live in Germany. My grandfather, who came of age in the 1930s, described his impression at the time as follows: "We thought of Parliament as a talking shop, and the traditional parties and politicians as windbags. But Hitler did something, he took action and brought about change. That impressed us."
Parliament had squandered its reputation among the population through self-imposed blockades, and Hitler was able to build on that.
R.M. in Elgin, IL, writes: You know things are bad when lasting peace in Gaza is more likely than funding the Federal government. The problem with the recissions is that they destroy the trust needed to reach compromise. I think that the way this shutdown ends is another carve-out on the filibuster, which will turn it into a toothless option.
Anonymous in Finland, writes: The U.S. system is crazy. You do not have the greatest democracy in the world.
D.G. in Sarasota, FL, writes: This is not the way to run a country, really, is what don't they get about it.
G.R. in Carol Stream, IL, writes: This is not negotiation. This is a breakdown of the system.
M.M. in San Diego, CA, writes: No wonder everyone hates Congress.
And finally, a couple of closing thoughts:
Anonymous in Warren, MI, writes: This is bullsh**.
E.E.M. in Richmond, VT, writes: 3.2 more years of this bullsh**.
Thanks to everyone who contributed. Today's an unusual day; we'll be back to more normal order tomorrow. (Z)