Dem
47
GOP
53
On Wednesday, we wrote up the election results—about 3,500 words, which is pretty good given that time was limited and there were still some results that were not known.
We should have realized, however, that there would need to be some follow-up pieces, and should have headlined that piece accordingly. Oh well, live and learn. So, like they did with the Indiana Jones films, we will incorporate the need for sequels into the second title in the series, if not the first. There's actually quite a bit more to be said, including some very useful reader comments. So today, we'll cover a couple of angles, and then we'll have more post mortem items next week.
Donald Trump
There are several Trump-related angles worthy of some attention. To start with, one of the big stories before the election was the Department of Justice's announcement that it would be sending "election monitors" to California and New Jersey. This was (and may still be) the trial run for an overall program of voter intimidation in 2026.
This week, however, the election monitors were a non-story. Since that was an "angle," reporters were looking for them and largely could not find them. For example, there were apparently only two of them in all of Fresno County, which was one of five counties in California that the DoJ said needed special attention. In all cases where an election monitor was spotted, they were way outnumbered by counter-monitors there to make sure people's rights were observed, and to make sure that the feds kept their noses clean.
According to the handful of reports from people who were actually able to find one of the DoJ-sent monitors, the people doing the job were political appointees, like Assistant Attorney General Michael Gates. Maybe this is a very good sign, that the administration can't find many people to do "monitoring," outside of a few hardcore MAGA loyalists. Alternatively, maybe they were just collecting intel for a larger operation next year. If so, it's hard to imagine how much they could plausibly have learned.
We also heard from reader T.O. in Dallas, TX, who urges us to keep an eye out for any reports of election fraud, since those will be the pretext for sending various sorts of goons against voters in 2026. We actually have been keeping an eye out, and we have seen no such stories. Maybe we're not looking in the right places; after all, we are not devoted fans of LindellTV. However, it could also be that it's way harder to sell such tall tales when the margins of victory are large, as they were Tuesday. Alternatively, it could be that claims of voter fraud only gain traction in the right-wing ecosystem when they involve turning Trump losses into Trump "wins." If either of these things is true, it would be good news for the 2026 cycle.
Whatever the President might say publicly, his words and actions in private (even if it turns out to be not so private) make clear that he knows the Republicans took a beating on Tuesday. He's indulged in at least two temper tantrums at the expense of his fellow Republicans, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) particular targets of his ire. He blames the shutdown for the defeats, and he says that the shutdown is the Republican senators' fault. There are at least a couple of big assumptions in there that are dubious, at best. Certainly, it's a very convenient way to make the losses the fault of everyone except the guy at the very top of the political food chain. Reader D.E. in Lancaster, PA, sent in a few words on this subject:
Trump held a White House breakfast for the Republicans in the House and Senate after their very poor showings in the 2025 elections. The Republicans in attendance were described as very quiet and unsettled. Trump, being Trump, was described as angry. He tried to push the Senate Republicans to abolish the filibuster, but his calls were met with stony silence. It seems the news of his party's defeat in Tuesday's elections did not go over well.
I pulled some strings with a few White House operatives I know, and have been able to get secret video footage of the meeting. For a clandestine recording, the image is remarkably clear but the actual words are hard to make out, although the intent is self evident.Note that if you click through to the video; it's safe for work... unless your co-workers speak German.
Although Trump is angry now, there may yet be a victory for him. Reader E.C.F. in Somerville, MA, wrote in to point out that on or before January 20, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) will have to resign, so she can take over as Governor of New Jersey. If Johnson can hold the House out of session for that long, then Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) won't be enough to push the discharge petition over the threshold to bring it to the floor. It takes 218 signatures, regardless of how many seats are vacant. The loss of a signatory would leave the total at 216, and Grijalva would only be the 217th signature. Eventually, the replacement for Sylvester Turner will be seated, and so too will the replacement for Sherrill, but that's certainly months away, which means even more time for Johnson to try to turn one of the Republican signatories to the petition, or to hope that some other Democrat dies.
State Results
There are a few state-level results we didn't note in our first post mortem; let's rectify that now. To start, the overlooked state-level result we heard most about was out of Georgia. We'll let reader D.F. in Norcross, GA explain:
As I'm watching returns from a huge night for Democrats, I wanted to bring your attention to another one that only a few people are paying much attention to.
Here in my home state of Georgia, we had a special election for two spots on the state's Public Service Commission (PSC). Yes, it's a wonky special election in an off year, a rarity for statewide elections here. Yes, the PSC is a somewhat obscure state office (for the record, the commission oversees and regulates a variety of services—primarily utilities). Yes, the turnout was lower than most statewide elections. Still, more than 1.4 million votes in the election is nothing to sneeze at. And, in a further sign of strength, Democrats Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard flipped two seats on the commission by ousting incumbent Republicans. Why is this a big deal, you may ask? Well, it's the first time a Democrat has won a seat on the PSC in 25 years and the Party's first time winning a statewide constitutional office since 2006.
The fact that term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) put a lot of political capital into this race and campaigned heavily for the two defeated Republican candidates could be yet another proverbial canary in the coal mine for the GOP in another important swing state.Thanks to D.F. and to the other readers who wrote in about this result.
Meanwhile, reader L.R.H. in Oakland, CA, directed our attention to the results in Mississippi. There, the Democrats flipped three state Senate seats, which means the GOP no longer has a supermajority in the upper chamber. That makes it a bit harder for the majority party to do crazypants stuff, which the Mississippi legislature is kind of famous for. Mississippi GOP chairman Mike Hurst took the defeats well: "[This was] not totally unexpected, as Republicans were underdogs in these gerrymandered districts drawn by an unelected court pursuant to a misapplied federal statute that has been weaponized by interest groups." Gee, Mike, you're off your game. You forgot to mention socialism, communism, pizza-loving pedophiles, DEI, Black Lives Matter, Antifa, trans girls playing high school sports and Joe Biden's autopen.
Moving on, M.L. in West Hartford, CT, wrote in with a small addition to our previous report:I think you buried the lede on Lt. Gov-elect Ghazala Hashmi (D-VA). She is not only the first Muslim and first Asian American to hold statewide office in Virginia, but she is the first Muslim woman to win statewide office in the entire United States. Perhaps in 4 years, she'll be the first Muslim woman elected as governor in one of these (somewhat) United States?Her, or the first Muslim man to be elected to statewide office, namely AG Keith Ellison (DFL-MN).
And finally, a little context for the retention races in Pennsylvania, from M.D. in the Poconos, PA:
There were five statewide retention races. I guess, outside of Pennsylvania, few cared about the two appellate judges but voters gave all five overwhelming support. Yes, the three State Supreme Court Justices were the important races but we also had Superior Court Judge Alice Dubow, who won her race with the same 62% "Yes" vote as the Justices, and Commonwealth Court Judge Michael Wojcik, who received 57% Yes. The statewide PACs, as well as the Pennsylvania Democratic Party ads and mailers focused on the three Supreme Court Justices, but our county coordinated campaign decided to push the line to vote Yes on all the Statewide judges. In Monroe County, all five judges received between 62 and 63% Yes votes, so about the same as the statewide numbers.
I worked the phone at our local county Democratic office all day on Tuesday and most of the calls I fielded were people asking who the Democratic candidates were on their ballot. The retention question on the ballot doesn't list parties. Also, in Pennsylvania, county judges and school boards crossfile so can be on either party's line which confuses people constantly, and we had Republicans listed as Democrats so we had to do our best to inform voters who was who. One Trump nut managed to get elected to one of our School Boards, but for the most part people knew who were and weren't Democrats.
There was definitely a local blue wave, as we won all countywide races and won in some townships where in the past we couldn't find anyone to even run as a Democrat. Hopefully this carries over to next year and we can win back the 7th and 8th Congressional Districts, which both contain part of our county. And hopefully our very swingy county continues to become bluer.We'll have a bunch of questions about this week's elections tomorrow, of course.
Next week, we will have items that cover mayoral and other local races that are interesting and/or instructive. We've already got notes from Cayuga County, NY; Trumbull, CT; Branford, CT; Tarrant County, TX, and a few other places; if readers have additional local results to bring to our attention, please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com. We will also have an item on what's next, or what could be next, on the gerrymandering front, including a bit more on Maryland (our piece yesterday generated quite a few e-mails with additional information). (Z)