Dem
47
GOP
53
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) feels that her party has done her wrong. Now she is going to get even. But not quite in the way she is imagining it. Donald Trump nominated her to be U.N. ambassador, a job she wanted, so she gave up her position in the GOP House leadership. However, before she could be confirmed by the Senate, Trump pulled the plug on her because margins were so tight in the House that Mike Johnson did not want a vacancy for months until a special election was called. Stefanik couldn't get her leadership spot back because by then it had been taken by Rep. Lisa McClain (R-MI), who had no intention of giving it up. Suddenly Stefanik was a garden-variety backbencher, not in the leadership and not a Cabinet-level officer.
It has been speculated for months that she would run for governor of New York. Now she has formally announced a run. This has not been greeted with universal acclaim. In particular, some Republicans think she can't possibly win the general election because the current incarnation of Stefanik is extremely Trumpy. She doesn't really mean it. She is just an opportunist who senses which way the wind is blowing and goes with it, but detrumpifying herself now to run for governor would infuriate Trump. It is likely that Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who isn't as famous, but is politically a better fit for the New York GOP, will challenge Stefanik in a primary.
Democrats will enjoy the two of them tearing each other to bits for months—assuming they can tear themselves away from their own nasty gubernatorial primary between Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado (D-NY). In the GOP contest, the Democrats will certainly be rooting for Stefanik (and could quietly try to help her with a bit of old-fashioned ratf**king), but for a reason unrelated to the gubernatorial race. There are three New York House Republicans in swing districts: Mike Lawler (NY-17, D+1), Nick LaLota (NY-01, R+4) and Andrew Garbarino (NY-02, R+6). Democrats think that having Stefanik on top of the GOP ticket could be gift to them, as she could weigh down the ticket, suppress the Republican vote, and help flip the three Republican seats. It would be ironic if Johnson's call to Trump to kill her U.N. nomination because he needed her vote ended up in her causing three Republicans to lose their seats. And Johnson to lose his gavel, for that matter.
One way to prevent this scenario from taking place would be for the Republican Party to get behind the not-so-Trumpy Blakeman, but how would Trump respond to this? That might cause him to endorse Stefanik, creating a split in the Party. Trump doesn't think about things like party unity; he thinks about who supports him the most. It should be interesting. (V)