Dem
47
GOP
53
Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ) has been a mainstay of New Jersey Democratic politics for a good long time. She was a member of the state Assembly, eventually rising to become majority leader. She was chair of the state Democratic organ, and also worked for a long time as a member of the New Jersey State Division on Civil Rights. Since 2015, she's represented NJ-12 in the House of Representatives. That means she's currently serving her sixth term.
Despite having joined the octogenarian club in February, Watson Coleman has remained very hands-on, and a leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, in both word and deed. For example, she was one of three members involved in a confrontation with ICE at a detention facility back in May; that confrontation resulted in Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-NJ) being arrested. Nonetheless, after more than five decades in public service, Watson Coleman has decided that now is the time to stand down, and announced yesterday that she will not run for another term.
NJ-12 is very blue, at D+13. That's a tall climb for the minority party under the best of circumstances. And given what happened in the Garden State last week, it's essentially inconceivable that the seat will flip. The only question is which Democrat will succeed Watson Coleman. Unlike some members (ahem, Chuy Garcia), Watson Coleman did not manipulate the system to make sure that her preferred successor would replace her. So, while there was only one person in the race as of yesterday (an unknown: fitness studio owner Kyle Little), it's going to get crowded very quickly. Somerset County Commissioner Director Shanel Y. Robinson and East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen have already announced that they'll have their paperwork filed in short order. There are at least half a dozen others who might jump in. These would-be members are not well-known names, but they all have served in local or state office, and they all have connections within the New Jersey Democratic Party.
Many Democratic voters want the party's Congressional delegation to get younger, and they are getting at least some of what they want. That could just be good luck, but we doubt it. Yes, a member in their eighties is more likely to retire than a member in their seventies, who is more likely to retire than a member in their sixties. So of course the older members are going to dominate the retirements list. Still, our gut tells us that there are some members that, but for the youth movement, would not be heading for the exit. Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) leaps to mind here.
And as long as we are on the subject of Pelosi, and the game of musical chairs underway in her district (CA-11), one prominent possibility took their name out of the running yesterday. That would be Christine Pelosi, Nancy's daughter, who said she'll run for the state Senate instead. That's called taking the bird in the hand, rather than going after the two in the bush. With that last name, and with her mother's political network at her back, Christine will have a very good chance at winning a state Senate election. On the other hand, the competition for that House seat is going to be fierce, since it's basically a job for life. Up against five or six or seven other people, Christine Pelosi might have a rough time, especially given the dynastic undertones of such a campaign, not to mention the fact that her age (60 by Election Day next year) is not exactly compatible with "youth movement."
It's November, and we've already got 45 House retirements, which is about the average for a cycle these days. And there is still plenty of time for that number to climb higher. Meanwhile, the majority of the retirements are coming from the side of the aisle that is likely to take control of the House in 2027 (25 D, 21 R). That's not usually how it works, and it's another sign that some Democrats are stepping down because this is a good time to pass the baton, and not necessarily because they personally want to do so. (Z)