Dem
47
GOP
53
Now that the members of the House of Representatives are back from the 7-week vacation provided them by Uncle Sam and Uncle Mike, things are hopping. There were a few stories of interest on that front yesterday.
To start, we have yet another retirement. The latest to call it a career is Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX), who served in numerous appointed positions in the Bush gubernatorial administration and then the Bush presidential administration, then worked for the Texas Tech University System for a decade, and then was elected to Congress in 2016. That means he's in his fifth, and now final, term.
Although he's been in politics a long time, Arrington is only 53. His district, TX-19, is R+25, which means a job for life if Arrington wants it. He is also chair of the powerful House Budget Committee, which is often a step on the ladder toward a leadership position. It is somewhat unusual for a member to retire under those circumstances. So, what's going on here?
The Representative's official explanation is that he believes service in elective office should be a temporary job, not a permanent one. He also dusted off an old classic, and said he wants to spend more time with his family. These things could certainly be true; there's a lot of "professional politicians are the problem" sentiment in Texas, and Arrington does have three kids and a wife.
If there is more to the story than that (and keep in mind that there usually is), we can think of two possibilities. First, if he thinks a blue wave might be coming, and the GOP might be in the minority in the House for the next 2, or 4, or 6 years, well, there aren't too many jobs in Washington that are less fun than "member of the House's minority party." Further, while chairing the House Budget Committee often leads to a leadership position, it also often leads to a fat salary as a lobbyist. As a MAGA loyalist and a Trump whisperer, Arrington's services as a lobbyist are most valuable at this exact moment. They become much less valuable as Democrats gain more control, and they become close to worthless if the Democrats gain the trifecta (or even just the House and the White House). So, if he's hoping to improve on that $174,000 salary, this is a good time for him to do it.
Because Arrington just threw in the towel, it's not clear who will run to replace him yet. However, many Republicans will come out of the woodwork, and they will compete to show who is the Trumpiest of them all. One of those people will advance from the primary, and then will win the seat. There really is no such thing as a blue wave large enough to flip an R+25 seat, even if the GOP ends up with a candidate with enough baggage to fill the cargo hold on a 747.
In other news, Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) will be sworn in at 4:30 p.m. today. If there happens to be an "unexpected" fire alarm at 4:28 p.m., we hope they scour the security footage for a middle-aged guy with a conservative haircut, glasses, and a perpetual smirk. In any case, it looks like Jeffrey Epstein is about to be in the news again, a lot.
Finally, former representative Elaine Luria (D-VA), who lost her seat to Rep. Jen Kiggans in 2022, has decided to try to get her old job back. This development is likely not related to the House being back in session. No, it's a product of two things: (1) Luria has noticed that the district, VA-12, has a PVI of EVEN, and may get bluer if the legislature redraws the maps, and (2) Luria has also noticed that the Democrats romped in Virginia last week, even the ones who sent ill-advised threatening messages from their cell phones. Luria lost that election back in 2022 by just 3 points, so she has to like her chances in 2026. (Z)