Dem
47
GOP
53
Republicans are doing whatever they can to disenfranchise as many voters as they can. This drive is based on their possibly outdated view that marginal voters are Democrats. In 2024, there was some evidence to the contrary, but old ways die hard.
One old trick the Republicans often trot out is making voting-by-mail more difficult. A Mississippi state law allows absentee ballots that are postmarked before Election Day, but that arrive a few days later, to be counted. The RNC doesn't like this and brought a case, claiming that federal law describes "Election Day," so all ballots must be in then. U.S. District Judge Louis Guirola upheld the state law, ruling that the federal law was simply intended to prevent each state from setting its own Election Day, with published results from earlier states influencing voters in later states.
The RNC appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, which reversed Guirola. The 5th Circuit declined to make an en banc ruling. Mississippi then appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Nineteen states and D.C. filed amici briefs supporting Mississippi. It is not too often that a plurality-Black state or territory, like D.C., comes out in support of Mississippi, which MLK Jr. himself described as the most racist state in the union. But politics makes strange bedfellows, sometimes. On Monday, in an unsigned order, the Supreme Court granted cert. This means that at least four justices think the case is important enough for the full Court to hear and rule on. Oral arguments are expected next year and a decision is likely in June. That would be early enough to affect ballots cast in the midterms that arrive after Election Day.
Of course, if voters would kindly cast their absentee ballots well before Election Day, this problem would not arise. But there are always people who cast their absentee ballots at the last minute, and then delays at the Post Office cause the ballots to arrive after Election Day. Well over a dozen states count absentee ballots arriving after Election Day if they are postmarked on time. A decision to have states simply throw out ballots arriving too late would be a major change in election procedures. Some states might respond to that by publicizing the need to mail ballots early. For example, they could print on the envelope, in large boldface type: "Please mail your ballot at least 10 days before Election Day to be sure it will arrive in time to be counted." Still, there are always stragglers. What we really don't know is which party's supporters will be harder hit if the Court rules for the RNC.
One issue that is sure to come up in the oral arguments is overseas voters, both military and civilian. International mail is extremely slow and getting worse. Airmail from Europe to the U.S. now routinely takes 3-4 weeks. From the Middle East, Africa and Asia, it is probably worse. This means if a ballot is mailed to an overseas voter 6 weeks before the election and the voter marks and sends it back the day it arrives, it may still arrive after Election Day. There are plenty of people who are OK with Black and brown people being deprived of their vote, and there are plenty of other people who are OK with Joe Sixpack being deprived of his vote, but there are not too many people who are keen on the idea of depriving active-duty soldiers of their vote, and that includes the nine justices. (V)