Dem
47
GOP
53
As we and others have pointed out multiple times, many of the Black and Latino voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024 are starting to regret it big-time. The elections earlier this month are showing this clearly, as more data are being analyzed. Here is a comparison of election results in New Jersey showing the shift in 2024 (Biden to Trump voters) and 2025 (Trump to Mikie Sherrill voters).
The majority-nonwhite townships are highlighted in yellow. Union City, in particular, is very heavily Latino. As you can see on the left, it swung very heavily from Biden to Trump in 2024. And it swung equally hard from Trump to Sherrill in 2025. That is true of the whole state, but especially the areas with many Latino voters. In 2024, they were either voting specifically for Trump or specifically against Kamala Harris. Perth Amboy is another heavily-Latino city that also swung sharply back toward Sherrill in 2025.
Democratic strategists saw the 2024 swing not only in New Jersey, but in the Bronx, South Texas, and other locations with large Latino populations. They feared a major realignment was happening. The elections earlier this month were the first test of whether Latinos are now Republicans. The evidence shows they are not. They just liked Trump (or disliked Harris). The results for New Jersey in 2025 are much closer to what they were in the 2021 gubernatorial election than what they were in 2024.
Some townships shifted to the right in 2025. None of the top 25 townships that shifted to the right had a Latino population over 10%. These townships were largely white with residents having college degrees. They are largely Republican areas, but the residents just don't think Trump is a very good Republican, so they will vote for a normal Republican, just not for Trump.
Mike Madrid, an anti-Trump Republican strategist, had a different explanation for the shift. He said it is not Democrat vs. Republican, it is incumbent vs. nonincumbent. The vote was a protest against the incumbent party for not making their lives better. In 2024, the incumbent president was a Democrat, so Latinos voted for the Republican. In 2025, the incumbent president was a Republican, so Latinos voted for the Democrats. (V)