Dem
47
GOP
53
YouGov runs approval polls of the president weekly. These provide lots of data for comparison purposes. One analysis, by G. Elliott Morris, is of Donald Trump's approval in Trump v.2.0 vs. Trump v1.0 among independents, the only group that could swing substantially in an election. Here are the data:
The difference is enormous. First, Trump largely held steady among independents all of his first term. This time the dropoff has been almost continuous, from net -5% at the start to net -35% now. Second, at this point in his first term, Trump was at -19%. That is -35% now.
While the graph above is the national average, Trump's approval is under water in every state, although it is much less under water in the reddest of states. Still, under water even in red states is not good.
Could the president's approval affect other elections? A lot of data says it does. When people are unhappy, they tend to blame the president and his party. The YouGov poll on the generic House ballot has the Democrats ahead at D+7. Ahead of the 2018 midterms, at this point the generic House poll was D+8. Democrats flipped 41 seats in the 2018 midterm elections. Due to increased gerrymandering, pulling off that kind of victory will be more difficult now, but the generic House polling does look encouraging for the Democrats at the moment. (V)