Dem
47
GOP
53
Guess what? Today is Gerrymandering Day! Now, now, try to contain your excitement. Actually, yesterday was supposed to be Gerrymandering Day, but then the Internet crapped the bed. This turns out to be fortuitous, however, because there was actually some pretty big news yesterday (see "Gerrymandering, Part III").
Democratic politicians have always operated on the principle that their voters want to play fair and would be very upset if they pushed the envelope to the limit. The 64% to 36% margin that Proposition 50 got in California ought to dispel any notion that Democratic voters' top priority is playing fair. It really could not be clearer that Democratic voters want to win any way that is legal, and that being "polite" or "fair" is not on the table anymore.
All eyes are now on Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL). In terms of state law, he is in an ideal situation to do something dramatic. Illinois does not have an independent redistricting commission. The legislature, which has Democratic supermajorities in both chambers, draws the maps. The Supreme Court has explicitly said that partisan maps are allowed.
When the state legislature reconvenes in January, Pritzker could ask the Democratic leaders to go to town and simply eliminate the three Republican districts and make sure every representative was a Democrat. There is no legal barrier to that. Would the map be pretty? No, it would make Elbridge Gerry cry in his grave, but it would be legal. Democrats just played nice in the past. If Pritzker told the legislators, in private and in public, to redo the map to eliminate all the Republican seats, there is a good chance that not only would the vast majority of the Democrats nationwide applaud him, but it would cancel out one of the major selling points Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) will have in the 2028 presidential primaries. Pritzker could then brag: "He eliminated five Republican seats. What a wimp. I eliminated every Republican seat."
Up until last Tuesday, pundits and talking heads would have said: "Tsk tsk. Don't do it. The voters will punish you for pushing the envelope." Now it is abundantly clear that Democrats are not interested in being Mr. Nice Guy or Ms. Nice Gal anymore. They prioritize winning. It will be interesting to see if Pritzker got the message. That said, keep reading. (V)