Nov.20

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

MAGA Is Showing Cracks

Up until now, the MAGA movement was whatever Donald Trump wanted it to be. Dissension was not tolerated. The events of the past month (Epstein, the shutdown, health care, etc.) may have changed things a little. Cracks in MAGA are starting to show. Just cracks, no big fissures, but cracks nevertheless. They are happening because Trump's approval rating and power seem to be declining, and his lame duckishness is gradually emerging. Republicans are beginning to see that he won't be around to punish them forever. Here are a few areas where not all Republicans are on the same page:

• Jeffrey Epstein: In a fairly recent poll, only 45% of Republicans approve of Trump's conduct in his handling of the Epstein files. Most Republicans believe that the government is hiding key information from them. Maybe QAnon was right: There really is an elite pedophile ring (only Trump isn't going to break it up; he is part of it). Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) are pit bulls and are not going to give up now, after having won a stunning upset victory. Greene is a wacko, but she really believes this stuff. Massie is actually quite smart. He was on a team that designed and raced a solar-powered car when he was an engineering student at MIT. After graduating, he formed a tech company, raised $32 million in venture capital for it, hired 70 people, obtained 24 patents, and sold the company in 2003. He is a libertarian and a pitbull but not a wacko.
  
  
• Nick Fuentes: Tucker Carlson is a big fan of antisemite Nick Fuentes. Candace Owens is with him too, and has blamed Israel for assassinating Charlie Kirk. The Heritage Foundation backed Carlson, which led to a huge blowup. This was too much for even Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who has called the growing antisemitism a cancer. When Ted Cruz is the adult in the room, we are out deep in right field, and not in Fenway Park. This issue could split MAGA badly, especially if Carlson and Cruz both announce presidential runs after the midterms.
  
  
• Tariffs and Affordability: The base is in favor of tariffs in the abstract, because Trump likes them. But the base very much does not like the high cost of living and inflation. But tariffs help stoke inflation. There are Republicans who cheer on the tariffs but other Republicans who oppose them on account of the affordability issue. You can't have it both ways.
  
  
• H-1B Visas: The H-1B visa program allows talented people from India and other countries to come to the U.S. to work for tech and other companies. Some are willing to work for much less than Americans, just to get in the door. This undercuts wages for Americans. Why should a company hire an American for $150K when an Indian will do the work for $75K? This is not exactly "America(ns) First." Laura Ingraham recently interviewed Trump and told him to cut off the H-1B program to help Americans be hired. Trump disagreed. This issue could split MAGA along the lines of "no more immigrants, especially not brown ones" vs. "immigrants are welcome when Big Business wants them."
  
  
• Corruption: Trump isn't even bothering to attempt to cover up his corruption anymore. He bulldozed the East Wing of the White House and then collected $350 million from big companies and rich people to have a gilded palace for his balls. Then there is the crypto, deals with Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), and much more that is entirely for Trump's personal benefit. Republican voters who temporarily lost their SNAP benefits and may soon permanently lose their health insurance are ever so gradually beginning to wise up. Politicians like Greene have already figured this is a horse they can ride to bigger and better things. Trump might concede on the H-1Bs if need be since they mean nothing to him personally (Mar-a-Lago hires unskilled immigrants who don't need H-1Bs). However, he will never concede on the grift. That is why he ran for president the third time. He began to sniff the possibilities for all the people he could shake down and all the ways he could monetize the presidency. Other Republicans are starting to see that opposing this corruption is likely to be a winner with the base.
  
  
• Foreign Policy: Trump campaigned on isolationism and ending forever wars. So far all he has is a temporary truce in Gaza that may not hold in the end. Fighting is still going on in Ukraine and Russia seems to be gaining because it has more soldiers to throw into the meat grinder than Ukraine does. "Who lost Ukraine?" could become a catchphrase to Trump's detriment. Then there is the possibility of an unnecessary war with Venezuela. If American soldiers die there, that will be extremely divisive. For people who truly believe in "America First," the lavish welcome for, and deals with, MbS is more "Saudi Arabia First" than "America First." They want Trump to focus on helping struggling Americans, not pal around with foreign dictators of one flavor or another.
  

All in all, there are an increasing number of issues where Trump's interests and the base's interests are diverging. Once Republican politicians begin to pick up on this, some of them are going to start pulling in a different direction. This will become much more apparent after the midterms, when the 2028 presidential election campaigns heat up quickly. Candidates who want to take down J.D. Vance are going to harp on issues where Vance is tied to Trump but that aren't all that popular with the base, like tariffs/affordability, corruption, and the unwanted focus on foreign affairs. This could split MAGA in ways we can't foresee now.

We'll also pass along the observation from The Bulwark's Bill Kristol, that waiting for moderate Republicans to find their spines has not worked out so well for Democrats and/or the resistance, while encouraging fractures in the MAGA coalition has just paid handsome dividends. In his view, this suggests that "It may be more fruitful in the effort to weaken Trump to find and exploit fractures in the MAGA coalition than to try to find moderates to step up." So, there may be opportunities here for Democrats to exploit, in addition for non-Trump/non-Vance Republicans to exploit. (V)