Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump has thought of a way to buy the midterms. He wants to send Americans a $2,000 check next year, presumably with his name on it in boldface. The plan is not going so smoothly.
Trump's idea was to use the money collected from his tariffs to pay for it, but math was never Trump's strong suit. If every American got $2,000, the total bill would come to $660 billion. The tariffs amount to about a third of that. If the formula is arranged so that only half of Americans get a check, it is still not enough. A second problem is that the tariff money goes into the federal treasury, not Trump's personal slush fund. For Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to write the checks, Congress would have to authorize them.
The third, and biggest, problem is that many Republicans in Congress have other ideas about the tariff money. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) said: "We're facing a deficit this year around $2 trillion. I think whatever revenue we get, from whatever source, ought to go to try and bring down those deficits." That doesn't sound like a "yes" vote to us. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) agrees: "You know, my focus would clearly be paying down the $38 trillion of the debt." Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) is a firm "no." He said it would never pass, given the soaring national debt. He also wants to pay down the deficit. So far the only senator in favor is Josh Hawley (R-MO).
Over in the House it is not much better. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said: "The discussion would be: If you have trillions of dollars in new revenue, what's the best use for it? Should you pay down the debt? Because that saves families a lot of money in the long run and puts us back on a sound fiscal trajectory." Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) said: "I mean, everybody's got their own idea. I would prefer we reduce the overall tax rate, and make that permanent."
Yet another problem is that the Supreme Court is now considering whether Trump even has the authority to levy tariffs. If he doesn't, the money already collected will have to be used to reimburse companies that paid it and there won't be any new money coming in from tariffs.
Finally, dumping $300 billion or more on consumers is going to lead to a buying spree, which will be inflationary, just at a time when consumers are complaining loudly about how much everything costs. In short, it will take a lot of arm-twisting for Trump to get his plan through Congress. More arm-twisting than he's probably capable of doing. (V)