Dem
47
GOP
53
Kamala Harris turned down a run for governor of California because she is suffering from the delusion that she could somehow get the Democratic nomination for president in 2028, a year when Democrats will be desperate to win and are not going to pick known losers, like Harris or Hillary Clinton. It will very likely be a white man, and most likely a straight one at that (sorry, Pete). In the California race, former Rep. Katie Porter (D) is running, but is enmeshed in a scandal because she is a prickly person. Former Sec. of HHS Xavier Becerra (D) is running but is also involved in a scandal because aides stole from his campaign account and he was totally unaware of it, which makes him look stupid. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) has passed on a run. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D-CA) is running for state treasurer. There are a few others running, but no one with a commanding-enough presence to clear the field.
This situation generated an opening for Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), who has now jumped in. His career is based on blasting Donald Trump morning, noon, and night. That could play well in California. On the other hand, Swalwell has only $500,000 in his campaign account and is personally one of the poorest members of Congress. He will need a lot of small donors to get going, but since plenty of Democrats also hate Trump, he might get them.
Another new entrant is billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer. He ran for president in 2020 and got nowhere, but he is better known in California than nationwide. Also, a few hundred million dollars goes further in California than it does nationwide. His pitch is not about Trump especially. It is about affordability. Among other things is his plan to build 1 million new houses, in part by loosening permitting rules.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and TV personality Steve Hilton are running as Republicans. Republican-turned-Democrat Rick Caruso could jump in, too. He is a billionaire, but Democrats don't like turncoats.
One potential outcome could be unpleasant for the Democrats. Kamala Harris got about 60% of the vote in 2024 and Donald Trump got about 40%. Suppose there end up being about six viable Democrats and each one gets about 10% of the total vote. Meanwhile, the two Republicans split the 40% Republican vote and get 20% each. California uses a top-two primary system, so in that case, Bianco and Hilton would meet in Nov. 2026 as the general election candidates. No Democrat would be on the ballot, so one of the Republicans would be elected governor. This is a potential consequence of California's (if we may say) stupid system.
If Californians want to be different and not hold first-past-the-post partisan primaries, the way most states do, a far better way is the Alaskan system. There the top four finishers in the open primary make it to the general election, which uses ranked-choice voting. There would almost always be at least one Democrat and one Republican in the top four, and the ranked-choice voting in the end would cause all the Democrats to ultimately coalesce on their best candidate and likewise the Republicans. Are Alaskans smarter than Californians? A case can be made. That said, we are operating in the realm of theory rather than reality here. Invariably what happens in high-profile California races is that some of the Democrats drop out when the money runs out. Among the rest, at least one emerges as enough of a frontrunner to outpace the Republicans. If there was any chance of a Republican vs. Republican gubernatorial election, the California Democratic Party would flip out, and make sure every Democrat in the state knows not to vote for a lower-tier candidate who has no chance of winning. (V)