Nov.24

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J.D. Vance Is Not a Sure Thing in 2028

A lot of people are acting like J.D. Vance is a shoo-in for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. We are not so sure. We are old enough to remember how pundits from all over the spectrum were sure that America's mayor, Rudy Giuliani, was a sure-fire Republican nominee and would face sure-fire Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in November 2008. As we recall, it didn't happen quite like that.

Historically, sitting vice presidents don't usually get elected president. It has happened only twice since 1800. In 1836, Andrew Jackson's veep, Martin van Buren, got the nomination and won and in 1988, George H.W. Bush also got lucky. Both had unsuccessful presidencies and were not reelected. Other sitting vice presidents got the nomination but lost, namely John Breckinridge (1860), Richard Nixon (1960), Hubert Humphrey (1968) and Al Gore (2000). One could also put Kamala Harris on this list, though she doesn't fit 100% cleanly, for obvious reasons. In addition to not being worth a bucket of warm pi**, the vice presidency is a poor launchpad for higher office, of which there is only one. There are several reasons for this:

• No Personal Identity: Vice presidents have only one power: breaking ties in the Senate, and ties are rare. Voters don't give veeps a lot of credit for doing that. They are almost always in the background. They rarely have their own identity. They cut ribbons, go to foreign funerals, and give speeches, but these speeches usually put them in attack-dog mode, which leaves a substantial "paper" trail that can be used against them later.
  
  
• Extension of the President: People think of veeps as extensions of the president and most presidents lose their popularity over time. If the president is unpopular, "more of the same" is a poor platform. Van Buren and Bush did well because their presidents, Andrew Jackson and Ronald Reagan, respectively, were still unusually popular at the end, so "more of the same" worked.
  
  
• They Never Get Any Credit: It is rare when a vice president gets credit for anything. During Nixon's 1960 run, reporters asked President Dwight Eisenhower for one thing Nixon did as vice president that influenced decisions he made. Ike said: "If you give me a week, I might think of one." It is always like that. If the president is successful, the president gets the credit, not the veep. However, if the president is unpopular, the whole team is tarred. That's the way it goes.
  
  
• Conjoined at the Hip: Vice presidents can't reject the policies of their president. That would alienate the president's supporters. This makes it impossible for the vice president to be the "change" candidate, even if the public wants change. Remember when Kamala Harris was asked if she would make any decisions differently from Joe Biden and she said "no"? That didn't make her the change candidate at a time when voters wanted change. Al Gore made an attempt to distance himself from Bill Clinton's Monica Lewinsky scandal—which was obviously not a policy issue—by furiously making out with his then-wife Tipper Gore on stage at the Democratic National Convention in 2000. It didn't work. People didn't like Clinton's dalliances and blamed them on Gore. It's not fair, but it is politics.

How will this play out in 2028? Donald Trump is already deeply underwater, by something like 14 points, depending on the poll, and it's likely to get worse rather than better over the next 2 or 3 years, especially if the economy goes south. How will Vance separate himself from Trump without alienating Trump's fanatical supporters? And if Trump is 20 points under water, running as Trump III will not be a winning formula in the general election. But even getting the nomination won't be a sure thing if Trump is unpopular. Remember, many of his supporters will accept no substitutes and Vance will have plenty of competition, probably including Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA), Marco Rubio, Chris Sununu, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA), not to mention potential wild cards like Tucker Carlson. None of the others will be as closely tied to Trump and his liabilities. Some of them will fall by the wayside early on, but some may hang on.

One candidate who is already quietly running is Cruz. In particular, he is already trying to differentiate himself from Vance. One battle was for NASA administrator: Cruz supported now-Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy while Vance supported Jared Isaacman, whom Trump nominated, withdrew, and then renominated. This was a proxy fight between Cruz and Vance. Another battle was over Trump's nominee for FCC chairman. Cruz opposed him while Vance supported him.

Cruz is also picking a fight with Tucker Carlson, who is close to Vance. The senator is very critical of Carlson's buddy, white supremacist and antisemite Nick Fuentes, and has attacked Carlson for tolerating Fuentes. Cruz has also attacked "Big Tech," knowing full well that Vance was formerly a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley and that Big Tech is not all that popular with the voters. Although the other 99 senators hate Cruz, outside of the Senate he is popular enough and crafty enough that he could derail Vance, possibly opening a path for someone other than the two of them. (V)