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What Will NATO v3.0 Look Like?

As a practical matter, since 1945, the U.S. has been the most powerful nation in the world and it got what it wanted nearly all the time. It was also the most respected nation for most of the world. When the U.S. needed help with something, such as driving Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, much of the world pitched in and helped. Donald Trump has casually thrown that all away. The rest of the world has noticed and is preparing to deal with a world in which the U.S. is a rogue nation, rather than a respected leader and partner.

The Halifax International Security Forum is an annual meeting of political, military, and security leaders intent on strengthening democracy. These days, relations between the U.S. and Canada, Europe, and Asian democracies are all strained. Trump didn't even send any representatives although a few senators showed up on their own.

This situation is leading European and Canadian leaders to start thinking about what their security arrangements would be without the U.S., say NATO v3.0 (NATO v2.0 was the post-Cold War version in which Eastern European countries joined). Would Germany and maybe even Poland build their own nuclear weapons? Would there be closer military integration among members? Will members manufacture and buy weapons from each other rather from the U.S.? Will there be greater cooperation between European democracies and Asian ones? These are all topics of discussion now and could lead to a world in which the U.S. is no longer the most important player, and maybe not even a member of some future political, economic, and military alliances.

Just as one example, if Canada, members of the European Union, the U.K., Japan, South Korea, Australia, and maybe a few others formed a free-trade zone and focused on buying and selling from each other, that would be a huge market. That bloc could also negotiate deals with China, leaving the U.S. out. It could shape the world in ways detrimental to the U.S. It is hard to think of a historical example in which the most powerful country in the world threw a fit and voluntarily threw away all of its soft power and in the long run, potentially much of its economic power. But that's what we might have today. Make America Great Again? (V)



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