Dem
47
GOP
53
Last June, Mark Green (R) announced that was going to retire from the House as soon as Donald Trump's BBB passed. It passed and on July 20, Green resigned from Congress. He didn't have to. He graduated from West Point, graduated from the Army Ranger School, graduated from medical school, and served as a flight surgeon, with a tour in Afghanistan and two in Iraq. He took part in the operation that captured Saddam Hussein and personally interrogated him for 6 hours. He was given a chestful of medals for his service. After his honorable discharge in 2006, he ran for a seat in the Tennessee state Senate and won. His crowning achievement was eliminating the state's income tax. He is also outspokenly anti-trans and anti-Muslim. In 2018, he ran for Congress in TN-07 and won. It sounds like the kind of backstory that would keep him in the House until: (1) he was elected to the Senate or (2) he died, which might take a while since he is only 61. But he left because he found another job that pays better than the $174,000 pittance a House member gets. Public service is fine, but enough is enough.
Consequently, a special election was called to fill his seat. Gov. Bill Lee (R-TN) decided that Dec. 2 was better than Election Day. Here is a map of TN-07:
The R+10 district is 69% white, 16% Black, and 7% Latino. It has urban, suburban, and rural areas. It includes some of Nashville's suburbs, but is mostly rural. It is full of conservative churches. Donald Trump won the district by 20 points; Green won his 2024 election by 21½ points.
So, nothing to see here? The Republican will win the special election in a rout and we will move on? Maybe not. Buoyed by the results nationwide on Election Day this year and previous special elections, Democrats have poured a lot of money into the special election, forcing the Republicans to do likewise. Here are the results of the previous four special elections for the House so far this year:
| Date | CD | 2024 House | 2025 Special | Difference |
| Apr. 1 | FL-01 | R+32 | R+15 | D+17 |
| Apr. 1 | FL-06 | R+33 | R+14 | D+19 |
| Sept. 9 | VA-11 | D+34 | D+50 | D+16 |
| Sept. 23 | AZ-07 | D+27 | D+39 | D+12 |
| Dec. 2 | TN-07 | R+21 | ? | ? |
The four special elections averaged D+16, in red districts and blue ones. If The Democrats can pull off a 16-point gain above the R+10 lean of the district, they have a shot. Green won by 21½ points in 2024, but he was a long-time incumbent. This is an open-seat race.
The winner of the Republican primary in TN-07 was Matt Van Epps, a former commissioner in the Tennessee Dept. of General Services. The winner of the Democratic primary was state Rep. Aftyn Behn. Here they are:
Is this talk of a competitive election just theoretical? Nope. Emerson College just ran a poll of the race and Van Epps is ahead 48% to 46% with 5% undecided. It looks a bit like a horse race. Young people who already voted supported Behn 56% to 42%, whereas Van Epps took seniors 51% to 37%. Women favored Behn and men favored Van Epps.
But there is more. Behn shot herself in the foot in 2020 when she said on a podcast: "I hate this city," meaning Nashville. She also said: "I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music. I hate all the things that make Nashville apparently an 'IT CITY.'" No doubt clips of that podcast are going to be all over TV this week. Hating Nashville might actually be a plus in the rural areas, but hating country music will not be.
If Behn loses by a small amount, say 5 points, despite both the redness of the district and her own personal liabilities, it will show that the trend of Democrats doing well even in red areas is continuing. Republicans will be nervous. If Behn actually wins it, Republicans are going to freak out nationwide. (V)