Oct.02

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

There Are Many Unanswered Questions about the Shutdown

The government is now partially shut down. This brings up a whole list of questions. Here are five of the major ones:

• How Long Will It Last?: Shutdowns have varied from 1 day to 34 days. Here is a list of shutdowns since Jimmy Carter was president (a slightly more expansive list than we discussed yesterday, as yesterday's list was limited to shutdowns that included furloughs):
  
  
  
  How long the shutdown will last depends on the pollsters. If either side feels that public opinion is against it and getting worse, that side will want to end the thing somehow rather than bleeding to death. One way out could be to punt: pass a short-term continuing resolution. But what then?
  
  Everything else aside, Donald Trump is extremely stubborn and hates to give in. But Democrats cannot be seen caving to him. This is not a situation conducive to compromise.
  
  In the past, a "gang of four" or a "gang of six" or some other number got together and made the sausage. But now, there are almost no moderates to work together in a gang. Maybe a gang of two: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA)? Except their own parties might reject whatever sausage they make since most senators are beholden to their own bases, and not to independents.
  
  In 2018, during a shutdown, Collins played peacemaker. Her office became known as "Switzerland" (i.e., neutral territory). Then-Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) gave her a gift of an African "talking stick." Only the person holding the stick was allowed to talk. Everyone else had to shut up. It got passed around and it worked. Now, almost nothing could work. If you gave Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) or Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) a stick, they'd probably just use it to thrash someone on the other side.
  
  
• Will Either Side Cave?: One big problem is the health-care subsidies. Democrats have drawn their line in the sand here. The subsidies are not cheap—estimates are $350 billion for 10 years. If they expire on Dec. 31, however, 4 million people will lose their health coverage and millions more will see their premiums skyrocket and may decide to drop insurance. This will force premiums up for everyone else. Republicans absolutely do not want to increase the deficit and Democrats absolutely do not want to deprive millions of people of health care. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) suggested that he could possibly agree to keeping the subsidies if the deal included getting rid of waste, fraud, and abuse. But in reality, there isn't much of that. There are precious few doctors with $1,000 stethoscopes. The only way to cut the bill is to deny health care to many people.
  
  Another thing the Democrats are insisting on—but not talking about because it is very inside baseball—is impoundment and recission. They want Congress to control the power of the purse. It is perhaps a revolutionary idea, but it is actually in the words of the Constitution: Congress alone has the power to decide how to raise revenue and how to spend it. The president's job is to carry out Congress' instructions, no more no less. Using impoundment and recission, Trump has simply refused to spend money Congress has appropriated. For Democrats, this is a hill to die on, but they can't talk about it because it is too arcane. But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) most certainly understand it. They are the worst kind of cowards, though, because what the Democrats want is not only constitutional, it would also increase their own power. What kind of politician is scared to death to do something that is not only legal but mandatory and would also increase their own power? Only a Coward First Class.
  
  Previous long shutdowns have had mixed results. The Nov. 1995 and Dec. 1996 shutdowns (27 days total) pitted Bill Clinton against Newt Gingrich and Bob Dole. The New York Times compared the Republicans to Napoleon's march on Moscow—a hopeless overreach. The narrative became the nasty Republicans wreaking havoc on federal workers and the public. One point for POTUS.
  
  The Oct. 2013 shutdown lasted 16 days. It was about Obamacare. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) wanted to cut the program. Obama, not so much. The public didn't want to cut or gut it. Another point for POTUS.
  
  The Dec. 2018 shutdown was the mother of all shutdowns. It lasted 34 days. It was during the lame duck session of Congress just after the elephant had gotten his ears pinned back with a loss of 42 seats but before the Democrats took over. Donald Trump demanded money for his wall and Democrats said, uh, no. In the end, Trump didn't get his wall. Final score here, POTUS 2, COTUS 1. Of course, the final score is also Blue Team 3, Red Team 0.
  
  
• How Far Will Trump Go Firing Workers?: Trump has threatened to fire federal workers, not just temporarily furlough them. No president has ever done this because it is illegal (Pendleton Act, and all that). Will he actually do it? How many? Firing tens of thousands of federal workers, many of whom live in Virginia and can vote in the gubernatorial election next month, is uncharted territory. If Trump really did it, it would affect many programs. It might not be so easy for Trump to make sure all the firings hurt only Democrats because many departments do many things. Gutting the Dept. of Agriculture would hit SNAP (food stamps) but also farmers.
  
  
• Which Government Services Will Be Most Affected?: By Monday, many federal employees will be furloughed and some may be fired. More firings could come later. In any event, most government programs require people to carry them out and if the people are gone, the services will not be rendered. Trump has a lot of latitude here and OMB Director Russell Vought is dead set on making Democratic constituencies feel most of the pain. October SNAP benefits will be paid, but November ones could be delayed. National Parks will remain open but there will be no services. The National Flood Insurance Program won't accept new customers or renewals of policies—right in the middle of hurricane season. Air traffic should not be affected, but in the past, air traffic controllers have called in sick. The principle here is: No pay, no work. That wreaked havoc with airports and flights. Same for TSA security checkpoint workers. That could snarl air traffic enormously.
  
  
• Who Gets the Blame?: Initial polling says the Republicans will get the blame, but that could change easily. If Trump acts like a man possessed rather than a dealmaker, independents could turn against him. A lot depends on the public's understanding of what the shutdown is all about. If the public comes to think the shutdown is about protecting health care, that could work for the Democrats. If the stock market drops or a recession looms, that could also affect public opinion.

What the end game is, is impossible to say. If we had to guess, we'd say the two sides will agree to a short continuing resolution, but that will just reopen the government without resolving the underlying problem, and there is still no agreement on the appropriations process. (V)