Dem
47
GOP
53
Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) wants to trade that title for Gov. David Schweikert (R-AZ). It is not an out-of-the-box idea. He is the 11th member of the House who is running for governor (or ran for governor and lost the primary, in the case of Josh Gottheimer). There are 30 House members who have decided not to run for reelection next year, but one of them is not like most of the others: Schweikert. Here is the list of soon-to-be retirees:
| Representative | Party | District | PVI | Reason for retirement |
| John Rose | Republican | TN-06 | R+17 | He is running for governor of Tennessee |
| Morgan Luttrell | Republican | TX-08 | R+16 | He has had enough |
| Randy Feenstra | Republican | IA-04 | R+15 | He is running for governor of Iowa |
| Dusty Johnson | Republican | SD-AL | R+15 | He is running for governor of South Dakota |
| Byron Donalds | Republican | FL-19 | R+13 | He is running for governor of Florida |
| Mike McCaul | Republican | TX-10 | R+12 | He wants to use his national security expertise to make more money |
| Mike Collins | Republican | GA-10 | R+11 | He is running to challenge Jon Ossoff |
| Ralph Norman | Republican | SC-05 | R+11 | He is running for governor of South Carolina |
| Chip Roy | Republican | TX-21 | R+11 | He is running for Texas attorney general |
| Andy Biggs | Republican | AZ-11 | R+10 | He is running for governor of Arizona |
| Buddy Carter | Republican | GA-01 | R+8 | He is running to challenge Jon Ossoff. |
| Andy Barr | Republican | KY-06 | R+7 | His is running for Mitch McConnell's open Senate Seat |
| Nancy Mace | Republican | SC-01 | R+6 | She is running for governor of South Carolina |
| Ashley Hinson | Republican | IA-02 | R+4 | She is running for Joni Ernst's open Senate seat |
| John James | Republican | MI-10 | R+3 | He is running for governor of Michigan |
| David Schweikert | Republican | AZ-01 | R+1 | His is running for governor of Arizona |
| Chris Pappas | Democratic | NH-01 | D+2 | He is running for Jeanne Shaheen's open Senate |
| Josh Gottheimer | Democratic | NJ-05 | D+2 | He ran for governor of New Jersey and lost the primary |
| Angie Craig | Democratic | MN-02 | D+3 | She is running for Tina Smith's open Senate seat |
| Don Bacon | Republican | NE-02 | D+3 | He doesn't agree with Trump on much and it would be a tough fight |
| Mikie Sherrill | Democratic | NJ-11 | D+5 | She is running for governor of New Jersey and won the primary |
| Raja Krishnamoorthi | Democratic | IL-08 | D+5 | He is running for Dick Durbin's open Senate seat |
| Haley Stevens | Democratic | MI-11 | D+9 | She is running for Gary Peters open Senate seat |
| Robin Kelly | Democratic | IL-02 | D+18 | She is running for Dick Durbin's Senate seat |
| Jan Schakowsky | Democratic | IL-09 | D+19 | She is 81 and retiring from politics |
| Lloyd Doggett | Democratic | TX-37 | D+26 | Redistricting put him in with a much younger Democrat |
| Jerry Nadler | Democratic | NY-12 | R+33 | He is way past his best-by date |
| Danny Davis | Democratic | IL-07 | D+34 | He is 83 and has had enough |
| Dwight Evans | Democratic | PA-03 | D+40 | He had a stroke last year and is retiring at 71 |
As you can see, most of the retirees are in safe districts that will not flip next year. Maybe John Rose will be elected governor of Tennessee next year, maybe not, but there is no way that TN-06 is going to send a Democrat to Congress. Districts in the range R+4 to D+4 are swing districts and can go either way. An R+4 district with an open seat could elect a Democrat if the Democrat is exceptionally good or the Republican is exceptionally bad or there is a huge blue wave. What you don't see in the above table is an EVEN district. And until now there was no R+1 or D+1 district. Now there is: Schweikert's district, AZ-01, which is Scottsdale and North Phoenix. This is a true tossup and probably the Democrats' best pickup opportunity. Don Bacon's NE-02 district looks easier, but Nebraska Republicans are actively busy redrawing the map to fix that bug. Arizona Republicans can't do that because the map is drawn by an independent commission. Besides, the governor is a Democrat.
Schweikert is no shoo-in for the GOP nomination for governor, either, so he is taking a risk running. Hard-right Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) also has gubernatorial visions, as does Karrin Taylor Robson, who is slightly less far to the right than Biggs. In addition, Biggs has the support of Arizona resident Erika Kirk.
With or without Schweikert's retirement, a bunch of Democrats have lined up to run for the nomination. Among them is emergency room physician Amish Shah, who ran for the seat in 2024 and lost to Schweikert by only 16,572 votes (3.8%). In a good year for Democrats, he would be a very strong candidate, but first he has to win the primary. (V)