Dem
47
GOP
53
We probably won't do an item every day on the shutdown, since that could get pretty boring, and pretty useless if this thing goes on for 20, 30, 40 days. But we certainly do need to do check-ins on occasion.
At the moment, both sides think they have the stronger hand to play. As we have written several times now, the polling very clearly favors the Democrats. We have also written that the White House has put out press releases spinning certain polls so aggressively that there is a risk of creating a black hole. Donald Trump might well be delusional enough to believe the spin, but we doubt that other Republicans are. So, we assume that they think their ace in the hole is that once the pain of a shutdown is felt, voters will turn against the Democrats.
The White House's position, at least at the moment, is the same as when the shutdown began close to a week ago: No negotiating. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said yesterday that the Democrats can vote to reopen the government and THEN there can maybe be talks about the Obamacare subsidies. Hard to imagine why such negotiations would need to wait... unless the administration is planning to go back on its promises as soon as the government is reopened. Will some voters look at this not-so-helpful posture, and reach the same conclusion? We don't know.
Meanwhile, the Senate conducted two more show votes yesterday, bringing the overall total to five. Each of the five have failed in the same way, with Democrats Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) and John Fetterman (PA), and independent Angus King (ME) crossing the aisle in one direction, and Republican Rand Paul (KY) crossing the aisle in the other (though some senators have skipped some of the votes). Nothing is changing thus far, and the number of votes for the can-kicking CR is well short of the 60 needed for cloture.
Most of the drama yesterday was actually in the House. Well, not really in the House, since the House is in recess right now. But the drama certainly involved the House. Going in no particular order, we'll start with the challenge that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) made to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA): Let's have a live debate on the floor of the House chamber, so we can explain our positions to the American people. Obviously, this is a stunt, although one that would be interesting, and might even be helpful. However, Johnson declined the offer, presumably because he's got the weaker position, or he's not a great public speaker, or both.
That said, the Speaker is doing what he can to take lemons and make lemonade... we suppose. Since there's no budget in place, apparently the House can't do anything at all right now (despite the fact that congressional salaries are paid out of a different pot of money, and so are not affected by the shutdown). Anyhow, Johnson has extended the members' 2-week recess to 3 weeks, which certainly does not suggest he expects progress anytime soon. Also, in what is surely a complete and total coincidence, the extra week of recess means that it's just not possible to swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D). Darn the luck! This means that Grijalva has been waiting for 2 weeks (and counting), and it also means that the Jeffrey Epstein discharge petition still lacks the final signature needed to bring the matter to the floor of the House. With this kind of fringe benefit, one can imagine Trump keeping the government shut down until, oh, maybe November of 2028?
Also from the House, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) broke ranks and said she wants to see the Obamacare subsidies saved. Though she says she's "not a fan," here's her reasoning:
But I'm going to go against everyone on this issue because when the tax credits expire this year my own adult children's insurance premiums for 2026 are going to DOUBLE, along with all the wonderful families and hard-working people in my district.
It's still a version of "healthcare for me, but not for thee," but it turns out that "healthcare for me" (or, at least, "healthcare for my kids") is dependent on the subsidies. If you are worried that Greene is going soft, or has become more sane, don't be. In the same posting to eX-Twitter (and note, even MAGA does not use Truth Social), she noted that "I think health insurance and all insurance is a scam, just be clear!" Not long thereafter, she also ranted against the Bad Bunny Saturday Night Live appearance and upcoming Super Bowl halftime show, declaring that the time has come to make English the official language of the United States, and also that "the NFL needs to stop having demonic sexual performances during its halftime shows." Yep, still crazy after all these years.
The bottom line is that there just isn't much movement right now, and does not figure to be for a while. That said, the Republican facade IS cracking a little, even if it's the House's biggest crackpot who is responsible. (Z)