Dem
47
GOP
53
Utah is one of the many states that has taken steps to try to reduce gerrymandering, with voters there having passed laws meant to make the district maps "fair." Of course, "fair" is often in the eye of the beholder, and while the state legislature does get input from an advisory committee, the legislators there have the final say (Iowa, Maine and Vermont have also set up their process in this way).
The most recent map adopted by the legislature was not "fair" by any meaning of that word, and so there were lawsuits. Due to the lawsuits, a judge said that the legislature had to do a better job. The advisory committee proposed six possible maps, and yesterday, the GOP-controlled state legislature adopted the most Republican-friendly of the six. Now, the map heads back to the judge for approval.
Needless to say, this story has not reached its end. The judge may reject the map, especially knowing there were five other options that were less gerrymandered than this one. Anti-gerrymandering groups are already at work on their briefs, and will be doing some filing bright and early today. In the other direction, the legislature is tinkering around with a few ideas that would get rid of this pesky anti-gerrymandering stuff once and for all.
However, there isn't all that much time left for maneuvering, as candidates need to be able to decide if they are running and, if so, where. So, it's well within the realm of possibility that the map adopted yesterday will be in place for the 2026 cycle, and then will be gone by 2028. If so, the new map puts two of Utah's four CDs in reach for the Democrats. Currently, the four districts are R+10 (x3) and R+14. Under the map adopted yesterday, one district might be roughly EVEN, and one might be R+4. Those are estimates from a couple of (neutral) analysts; another (neutral) analyst says they're not quite that close, and puts it as something more like R+4 and R+9.
At very least, it's at least one more seat, and maybe two, that the red team will have to defend. So, that's good news for the blue team. And it remains the case that in a big, blue wave, the Republicans are going to be smacked upside the head, while in a moderate blue wave the GOP will at least lose the majority. Anything less blue than that, from a blue ripple to a red ripple/wave/typhoon, and Mike Johnson probably gets to keep his gavel. (Z)