Dem
47
GOP
53
We don't particularly like to characterize it that way, because it's not a football game or a checkers game, and real people are being harmed. Still, this thing is most likely to end once a clear "winner" and a clear "loser" have emerged, and the losing side decides to cut its losses and make a deal. So, it's appropriate to the analysis to point out that the Democrats clearly have the upper hand right now, as Trump Shutdown v2.0 officially enters week 2.0.
There are two reasons that we offer that assessment. First, there have been a bunch of new polls; here's what they say:
| Pollster | Blame Reps. | Blame Dems. | Blame Both | Don't Know |
| CBS/YouGov | 39% | 30% | 31% | N/A |
| Harvard/Harris | 53% | 47% | N/A | N/A |
| The Economist/YouGov | 41% | 30% | 23% | 6% |
None of these are favorable to the GOP. Meanwhile, we'd say the scariest poll of all for the red team is the latest KFF (formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation) health tracking poll. KFF did not ask about the shutdown, but did ask respondents whether they would like to see the Obamacare subsidies extended. Here are those numbers:
| Group | Support Subsidies |
| Republicans | 59% |
| Democrats | 92% |
| Independents | 82% |
| Overall | 78% |
If you are the Democrats, and you look at this, it's hard to see what might move you off your (wildly popular) position.
The second reason we say the Democrats have the upper hand is the various tiddlywinks/chess moves that the two sides made yesterday. The White House, obviously trying to create some more leverage, suggested that, despite federal law to the contrary, furloughed workers might not get the back pay to which they are entitled once the shutdown ends. Donald Trump later said that only workers who "deserve it" would get their back pay.
To us, this reeks of desperation, and suggests that the administration has realized that mass firings are not viable, and so has to find some other way to put the screws to federal employees/Democrats. And after Trump made his threat, Republicans in Congress blew a gasket, and said that federal employees would most certainly get the pay to which they are entitled. Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA), whose spine seems to fade in and fade out, was particularly assertive, telling reporters: "The president—it's not up to the president. I mean, his opinion matters, but Congress has got to appropriate the money. Read the Constitution."
So, that's desperation and disagreement on the Republican side. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) spoke to reporters and made clear that his demand is that the Obamacare subsidies be extended permanently. He added that if all Republicans offer is a 1-year extension, that would be "a laughable proposition." We don't believe he's ever "clarified" things in this way previously. In other words, Jeffries' position looks to be getting more aggressive AND more entrenched. And after he laid out his demands, the response from his fellow Democrats was... nothing. Unlike the Republicans, they did not blow a gasket. In other words, the blue teamers sound like a caucus that is unified.
Since nobody is negotiating, and the House isn't even in session, it's hard to see this ending anytime soon. If and when the shutdown enters week 3.0, we'll see where things are at, what with a week being a lifetime in politics and all. But for now, the Democrats have to like their position. (Z)