Dem
47
GOP
53
Tennessee's 7th District is the one that former representative Mark Green (R) vacated so that he could go work for a Guyanan prince who is trying to smuggle $10 million out of the country (or something like that). Yesterday, the primaries were held, as the good people of Tennessee prepare to choose a replacement. One of the primaries was close, the other was not.
The not-close primary was on the Republican side, where Matt Van Epps took 51.6% of the vote in an 11-man field (and yes, it was all men). Van Epps is a longtime member of the Tennessee National Guard, and has also worked in the private sector, and also briefly for the Tennessee Department of General Services. He was Green's preferred successor, and several days ago, when the outcome was all-but-certain, Donald Trump bravely endorsed him. Van Epps appears to be MAGA, but not crazypants MAGA. Think Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), as opposed to Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ). That, plus being military, should make Van Epps a pretty good match for this R+10 district.
The close primary, meanwhile, saw state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D) eke out a win with 27.9% of the vote. She was trailed closely by Darden Copeland (24.9%). The other two candidates in the race, Bo Mitchell and Vincent Dixie, also broke 20%, so the field came pretty close to splitting the vote into equal quarters. Behn was the only woman running on either side of the primary, and she is something of a rabble-rouser. For example, she got tossed out of the Tennesse House chamber for protesting the speakership of Republican Glen Casada. Of course, those Southern legislatures will toss Democrats out for sneezing in the wrong direction, so who knows how much rabble she actually roused.
Democrats have hopes of maybe flipping this seat, but their chances would have been far better if the GOP had nominated a real nutter. If Behn is to somehow prevail, she will probably need one of two things to happen. The first is if she manages to make the election into a referendum on reproductive choice. The second is if Donald Trump sends the National Guard into Memphis and things turn ugly. Van Epps is not only a National Guardsman, but he's also gone on record as saying he supports sending troops to Memphis (which, by random chance, just so happens to not be located in TN-07). If there were some sort of violence or other disaster, some of the blowback could target Van Epps.
There is one other slight bit of good news for Behn: Turnout on the Democratic side of the primary yesterday was not too different from Republican turnout (about 31,000 D's versus about 33,000 R's). So, she's an underdog, but stranger things have happened. The general election is on December 2. (Z)