Oct.09

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Yes on Proposition 50 Is Leading, but It Is Not a Landslide

Proposition 50 is the initiative in California to override the map drawn by the independent commission and use a highly gerrymandered map that would probably result in the Democrats picking up five House seats, thus countering the Texas gerrymandering. Voting is already underway in California.

A recent poll commissioned by the Cook Political Report shows 47% of California adults are for Prop. 50, while 34% are against it. Among registered voters, the "yes" vote is 50% and the "no" vote is 35%. All it needs to pass is a simple majority.

Cook also tested three messages from each side to see which was more convincing. The "Yes on 50" messages tested were:

1. This levels the playing field against Republican gerrymandering in other states.
2. This is a temporary measure that preserves our commitment to fair redistricting in the long-term.
3. California needs more Democratic seats to check Trump's power in Congress.

They also tested three "No on 50" messages:

1. This undermines the voter approved independent redistricting commission.
2. Politicians shouldn't draw their own district lines.
3. This sets a dangerous precedent for partisan manipulation of district boundaries.

The "definitely yes on 50" voters found all three pro-50 arguments very convincing (94%, 92%, and 92%, respectively). Interestingly enough, the "definitely no on 50" voters did not find the "vote no" arguments all that convincing (44%, 38%, and 50%, respectively). So the no-voters will vote no, but aren't really convinced by the public arguments for their side. Among undecided voters, the strongest argument was politicians shouldn't draw their own district lines (34%). Second was checking Trump's power (18%). Third was it is a dangerous precedent (10%).

If the poll is accurate and holds until November, the measure will pass and California will probably get five new Democratic representatives. (V)