Dem
47
GOP
53
The current government shutdown will enter its third week tonight at 12:01 a.m., and there is no particular reason to believe that either side is ready to come to the negotiating table (much less BOTH sides).
There was something of a pressure point that was supposed to arrive tomorrow, namely that members of the military are paid twice a month, and one of those paydays is the 15th. Letting active-duty soldiers go without pay is not only the third rail of American politics, it's probably the fourth and fifth rail as well. So, the Democrats proposed a bill on Friday that would have addressed the issue. This bill was a huge problem for Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) for at least two, and maybe three, reasons:
So, the Democrats' bill was scuttled. Then, Trump had his underlings come up with a "solution" to the problem, and that solution was that his administration "found" $8 billion that was just lying around, so that the government could make payroll. That money was appropriated for a research project, so using it for military salaries is not in line with what Congress intended. Needless to say, this business of Trump doing whatever he wants with the government's money is not legal. But it is rather improbable that the Democrats will make a stink, because nobody wants to appear to be taking the side of "No! Don't pay the troops!" So, as is so often the case, Trump will get away with it.
The resolution of this particular matter means that what might have otherwise motivated the two sides to start talking turkey (well, talking sausage) will no longer provide that motivation. The White House has endeavored to provide a different "motivation," with threats to fire large numbers of government employees. However, the 4,000 or so layoffs that have happened thus far don't particularly match up to the grandiose threats that were made, and aren't enough to really make the blue team sweat. It also looks like there may not be any more layoffs, perhaps because the administration can't get by without those staffers, or perhaps because it knows it would lose in court. Josh Marshall, at TPM, has a few inside sources, and his belief is that the layoffs were mostly for show, so as to avoid claims that Trump, once again, chickened out.
So, what is the next pressure point? Well, there are a few possibilities. Broadly speaking, both the federal courts and the nation's air traffic control system are now badly strained, and are operating at much less than full capacity. That could generate some heat, particularly if there is a near-miss at an airport, or—and we obviously hope this doesn't happen—an actual accident. Beyond that, the next military payday is October 31. Is the $8 billion that Trump found in the White House couch cushions enough to cover that? The government spends about $200 billion on military pay and benefits each year, and $200 billion divided by 24 paydays is $8.1 billion, so presumably Trump would have to do some more scrounging next time around, or a stopgap bill would have to be passed.
The day that Democrats have circled on their calendars is November 1, as that is when people who are covered under the Affordable Care Act will start shopping for health care plans for next year, and many of those people will discover that their subsidies are gone and/or their premiums are going to go through the roof. We are not sure how many people jump on their health care paperwork the very first day they might possibly do so. Maybe it's a lot.
There is one new poll on the shutdown, and it is... instructive, we would say. It's from Reuters/Ipsos, and it reports two different sets of numbers that are worth noting. First, when respondents were asked who deserves the most blame for the shutdown, 37% of them said Congressional Democrats, 37% of them said Donald Trump, 19% said Congressional Republicans, and 9% didn't know. That means that close to two-thirds of respondents are pointing the finger in the direction of the GOP. Not good for the red team.
The other set of numbers tells a different story, however. When respondents were not forced to choose, and could assign blame to any entity they saw fit, then 63% assigned "a fair amount" of the blame to Trump, the same percentage assigned "a fair amount" of the blame to Congressional Democrats, and 67% assigned "a fair amount" of the blame to Congressional Republicans. That's pretty even, and it stays pretty even if you also add in the respondents who assign "a little" blame to each entity (then it's 80% for Trump, 83% for Congressional Republicans, 84% for Congressional Democrats).
The upshot is that the vast majority of voters are unhappy about the shutdown, and blame basically everyone in Washington, at least some. When push comes to shove, the Democrats get less blame than Trump and the Republicans (and people do like the cause that the blue team is fighting for). But the margin between the two sides is not huge, and it would not take much to shift it in the red team's favor.
Again, at the moment, it's Republicans who are showing cracks in the armor. If you are looking for early signs of Democratic cracks, the canary in the coal mine is probably Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA). He's the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate next year, and so he's the one most likely to pay a price if this goes south for the blue team. That means he's paying very close attention to the political winds, and if he sees signs he does not like, he could very well decide to declare that he's going to start voting with John Fetterman (D-PA), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Angus King (I-ME) to support a continuing resolution. That's not quite enough for cloture, but it would potentially give cover to Democrats who are thinking about doing the same, and it would certainly create some momentum in the Republicans' direction. (Z)