Dem
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GOP
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Yesterday, Politico had an item headlined "The 5 Democratic primary battles that'll test the party's future identity." We thought we'd run down those five races, Politico's basic characterization of them, and our opinion on how instructive they really are. We'll do three today, and then on Friday we'll do the other two, along with a couple of races we think Politico overlooked.
The Race: U.S. Senate Primary, Maine
The Dynamics: This is the race that prompted the whole Politico piece, as Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) finally bowed to months of pressure yesterday, and said she would run for the right to take on Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).
If you look up "known commodity" in the dictionary, there's a picture of Janet Mills there. She's won eight elections in Maine, four of those statewide. She has universal name recognition. She has a solid donor and political network. She is a moderate. She is also 77 years old and, even if she only served a single term (as she pledged to do yesterday), she would leave the Senate at the age of 85.
The fly in the ointment, in a manner of speaking, is oysterman Graham Platner. He is an outsider with no experience in elective office. He is also nearly four decades younger than Mills, and is much leftier. Under normal circumstances, the entry of a sitting governor into the race would be the death knell for an upstart outsider (and, in fact, the OTHER upstart outsider in the race, brewery owner Dan Kleban, dropped out yesterday). However, Platner has gotten a lot of buzz, and generated a lot of excitement. He's not going to go gentle into that good night, we think.
The Democratic establishment, of course, would prefer Mills. The primary reason is not entrenched power gravitating towards entrenched power. It's that Susan Collins is also a moderate, septuagenarian woman. That makes it much easier to turn the election into a referendum on Collins. If Platner gets the nod, it introduces wild cards into the equation. Politicians hate wild cards.
We should note there is also an X-factor. Jordan Wood, who is a longtime Congressional aide, is in. He's young, but he's also establishment (admittedly, the lefty part of the establishment). If he gains some traction, who will he steal votes from? We don't know.Politico's Characterization, in a Nutshell: The party elders vs. the insurgent outsiders
On a Scale of 1 to 10, How Instructive Is It, Really?: 5. If this turns into a real race, and the polls don't give Mills a 40-point lead out of the gate, then it's going to be covered as Hillary vs. Bernie, Part 727. And if Platner does pull it out, well, that will certainly send a loud message to... anyone who follows American politics. That said, Maine is not a particularly representative state. In particular, it has the oldest median age in the country (45.1 years). Also, Mainers are part of that New England tradition of discipline and common sense. We doubt there will be many disappointed Mills voters, or disappointed Platner voters, who take their balls and go home if their candidate doesn't win.
The Race: Gubernatorial Primary, California
The Dynamics: The only race in America with more horses in it is the Kentucky Derby. Probably noticing that California governors sometimes go on to be elected to the presidency, prominent Democrats came out of the woodwork for the opportunity to replace the term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). There are at least a dozen members of the blue team in the race, of whom seven are serious. And that doesn't include some of the maybes who haven't made a decision yet, like Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA). Oh, and don't forget that California has jungle primaries, which means the dozen or so declared Republicans will be on the same ballot.
In early polling, the nominal leader was former representative Katie Porter, who is well-liked by progressives for her lefty politics and "straight talk" (often accompanied by dry-erase markers and a whiteboard). The reason we say "nominal leader" is that: (1) it's early; (2) she has pulled about 15% support, which is only a few points more than several of her rivals and (3) "Undecided" is polling at 35%-40%. In short, she was leading a 100-mile race by a few yards at the 1-mile marker. Better to be ahead than behind, but not all that predictive, either.
Last week, Porter had a sort-of scandal that might knock her out of the catbird seat. It started with an interview being recorded for TV, during which Porter took exception to some of the questions, and eventually stormed out. The response, at least from some people, was: "She can dish it out, but she can't take it." Then, a bunch of videos leaked showing Porter treating her former staffers in a demeaning manner. We don't know if there would be as much commentary and coverage of this if Porter was a man. On one hand, women seem to get a lot less leeway in these circumstances. On the other hand, some of the videos display some pretty bad behavior. In any event, she's not dropping out, and time will tell if this hurts her or not.
Meanwhile, the other would-be contenders are doing everything they can to gain an advantage on Porter, and on the other candidates. This is like a very high-stakes game of musical chairs; as the election draws closer, funding (and other resources) will dry up for anyone who doesn't look like a real contender. It's OK to be polling in sixth or seventh place right now, but you need to be among the top two or three people on your party's side of the contest by January.Politico's Characterization, in a Nutshell: What kind of Democrat do Democrats really want (particularly when it comes to crime and to housing)?
On a Scale of 1 to 10, How Instructive Is It, Really?: 1. It's an off-year election held according to wonky ballot rules. The leading Democrats all, to a greater or lesser extent, have an affinity group that they are counting on and that they are trying to get to the polls. When it comes to this election, what happens in California, stays in California.
The Race: U.S. House Primary, TN-09
The Dynamics: TN-09 is the kind of district gerrymandering gets you. So that the Republicans—who control the state legislature, of course—could claim as many U.S. House seats as is possible, they packed a whole bunch of Democrats into this district centered on Memphis. It is D+23, and is the only district in the state represented by a Democrat.
That Democrat is Rep. Steve Cohen, who is white, 76 years old, and is gunning for his 11th term. Clearly, he knows a thing or two about winning elections. However, he has drawn a pretty heavy-duty challenger in the person of state Rep. Justin Pearson (D), who is close to half a century younger, is more liberal, and is Black. That name may ring a bell for some readers; Pearson is one of the members of the Tennessee state House who was thrown out of office for speaking out of turn (being "uppity," to use the term that Tennessee Republicans were REALLY thinking of), and then was quickly reelected by his constituents.
There are three factors, in particular, that could work in Pearson's favor. First, events in Israel put some Jewish politicians into a tough spot in 2024, and they could do it again in 2026, depending on what happens in that part of the world. Cohen is Jewish, of course (or we wouldn't be mentioning this) and is generally a critic of Benjamin Netanyahu and the current regime. Second, TN-09 is 60.2% Black, and identity politics play a bigger role in local elections than in national ones. Third, Democrats are very angry right now, and want officeholders who will raise some hell. Pearson, given his background, is certainly a "good trouble" kind of candidate.Politico's Characterization, in a Nutshell: Generational conflict
On a Scale of 1 to 10, How Instructive Is It, Really?: 3. If a whole bunch of candidates of the sort backed by David Hogg (and Hogg is definitely backing Pearson) win their primaries, that will be a big story. But there are too many variables to make it plausible to draw firm conclusions from this election alone.
We'll have races in Michigan, New York, and elsewhere on Friday. (Z)