Oct.20

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Dates That Could Affect the Shutdown

No Kings Day is over, except for the punditry, but the shutdown goes on. It hasn't won the gold medal for longest shutdown yet, but on Friday, it won the bronze medal for third-longest, with no end in sight. The parties aren't even talking to each other. When might it end? We certainly don't know, but there are a couple of dates from The Hill worth watching as they could have an effect on public opinion:

• Oct. 24: On this date, federal employees are scheduled to get their first full paycheck since the shutdown started. If the shutdown is ongoing, most of them won't get paid. This will put a strain on those employees who live paycheck-to-paycheck and who don't have a lot of savings to use for rent and food. They will definitely notice. Who they will blame could be crucial. The effect will be felt most strongly in states with many federal workers, such as Virginia, which has a high-profile gubernatorial election in 2 weeks. If the air traffic controllers start calling in sick that day, it could snarl air traffic and freeze the economy.
  
  
• Oct. 31: Yes, Halloween, so it is scary. Also, it is the next payday for over 1 million members of the Armed Forces. On Oct. 15, Donald Trump took $8 billion in research funds and used that to pay the soldiers. He might not be able to pull that sleight-of-hand off again. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) sees this coming and is preparing a stand-alone bill to pay the military even during shutdowns. He will dare the Democrats to vote "no." They're not the real problem, though. The problem is Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who doesn't want to call the House into session, because then he would have no choice but to swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva, which would mean the Epstein discharge petition would get the final signature it needs. Furthermore, Johnson wants to put pressure on both the Democrats and the Senate, and doesn't particularly want the hot potato, EpsteinYZ Affair or no. Who knows what will happen, but not paying soldiers is a big deal.
  
  
• Oct. 31 & Nov. 5: House staffers get paid on the last day of each month. Senate staffers get paid on the 5th and 20th of each month. If the shutdown goes through Nov. 5, no House or Senate staffer will get paid. The members work with (and depend on) these people every day. If the staffers don't get paid, the members will certainly get an earful. Will that move them? You never know.
  
  
• Nov. 1: This is the date that enrollment opens for people using the ACA. Since Democrats are fighting to continue existing healthcare subsidies, this could be a symbolic moment. At the very least, voters will begin to see what the BBB means for them personally when they start looking at what healthcare will cost in 2026. Absent the subsidies, they may not like what they see.
  
  
• Nov. 24: This is the start of Thanksgiving week, when many people travel to spend the holiday with family members. If the shutdown is ongoing, air traffic controllers are out "sick" and TSA has a shortage of workers, it is a formula for disaster. In 2019, Thanksgiving was the event that forced Trump to end the longest shutdown in American history. Until now, the shutdown is kind of abstract for many people. Not being able to get to Grandpa's farm for Thanksgiving, as they have done for the past 20 years, makes it much more personal for folks.

There is another important date not on the list, in part because it is not fixed by law. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has said that in 2 weeks, the SNAP (food stamp) program will run out of money. This means that 42 million people will go hungry then. They are likely to notice. And to remember in a year. Rollins said there are no other easy options for funding. Using income from tariffs might be possible, since those funds are not dependent on a congressional appropriation. However, Trump wants to use that money to compensate farms for the income they lost due to the trade war Trump started. It is our guess that when faced with a choice between helping farmers (who largely voted for him) or poor people (who largely didn't), the farmers will win. However, the tariff money goes directly into the treasury and Trump doesn't have any say what happens to it. At least, not legally. The chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, Sen. John Boozman (R-AR), is scratching his head trying to think of ways to fund the program.

A few readers have suggested we run a mini-poll of the readership, to get their guess as to where this is heading. Not a bad idea; the link is here. We'll reveal the results on Wednesday morning, so please get your responses in by tomorrow (Tuesday) night at 11:59 p.m. PT. (V)