Dem
47
GOP
53
In view of the previous story, this seems as opportune a time as any to do an update on the New York City mayor's race. The candidates held their first debate over the weekend, and while we didn't watch the whole thing, we did watch the highlights. It was pretty clear (and those who did watch the whole thing affirmed this) that Andrew Cuomo ("I") did not have the sort of breakthrough he needs. He came across as the slick political insider he's always been, and he took withering fire from both Zohran Mamdani (D) and Curtis Sliwa (R). You don't spend as much time in politics as Cuomo has without being able to hold serve in such situations, and he did, but he didn't pick up ground. And if he doesn't pick up ground, and soon, he's toast.
Put another way, the polling is not looking good for Cuomo. There are three different aggregators currently collecting and averaging polls, and here's how they each have it right now:
| Aggregator | Mamdani | Cuomo | Sliwa | Net |
| Decision Desk | 45.4% | 31.4% | 16.6% | Mamdani +14% |
| RealClearPolling | 45.3% | 27.9% | 14.1% | Mamdani +17.4% |
| Race to the White House | 47.1% | 29.5% | 15.7% | Mamdani +17.6% |
Alternatively, if you prefer individual polls, there have been four of them done since Eric Adams exited the race:
| Pollster | Mamdani | Cuomo | Sliwa | Net |
| Patriot Polling | 43% | 32% | 19% | Mamdani +11% |
| Gotham Polling & Analytics/AARP | 43% | 29% | 19% | Mamdani +14% |
| Beacon/Shaw/Fox | 52% | 28% | 14% | Mamdani +24% |
| Quinnpiac | 46% | 33% | 15% | Mamdani +13% |
It is hard to take seriously a house called Patriot Polling (and it is indeed a Republican firm). That Beacon and Shaw poll is legit, because Beacon is a Democratic house and Shaw is a Republican house, but the result does appear to be an outlier. So, it's probably fair to say that Mamdani is now up 13-14 points, with the majority of Adams' support having migrated to Cuomo. There is going to be one more debate—tomorrow—but it's hard to imagine Cuomo performing so brilliantly, or Mamdani screwing up so badly, that it's enough to wipe out a double-digit lead. Yeah, it's happened once or twice before, but it's very rare.
That means that Cuomo's best—and probably only—hope is that Sliwa drops out, and then his voters jump ship to Cuomo. This conclusion is obvious enough that Cuomo is now openly pleading for Sliwa to throw in the towel. So is Sliwa's very conservative boss, billionaire grocery and radio tycoon John Catsimatidis. And yesterday, in an amazing coincidence, Fox and The New York Post both ran op-eds demanding that Sliwa end his campaign. Our question is how the other Rupert-Murdoch-owned, New-York-based outlet—The Wall Street Journal—did not get the memo. That paper did run an op-ed telling the Democratic Party they need to get rid of people like Mamdani if they want to start winning elections again. The Journal's newfound concern for the fate of the blue team is touching.
Sliwa, for his part, says he's not going anywhere, and we believe him. First of all, that is on-brand for him, as someone who fancies himself an iconoclast. Second, he's run for mayor before, and been urged to drop out before, and he didn't do it then, so why would he do it now? That said, according to the Gotham Polling & Analytics/AARP poll, it's Mamdani with 45% and Cuomo with 41%, along with 15% undecided, if Sliwa does indeed drop out. In that case, it would turn into a real race. (Z)