Dem
47
GOP
53
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is 85. She was one of the most powerful House speakers in history. She had the wisdom to turn over the Democratic leadership in the House to the next generation while she was still at the top of her game. Now she is a backbencher representing San Francisco. She has said she will make an important announcement next month, after the vote on Prop. 50 in California. Her focus now is entirely on Yes on 50, so the Democrats can capture the House. An announcement before the election would distract from that.
It is widely assumed that she will announce her retirement after this term. She knows very well what happened to former senator (and close friend) Dianne Feinstein. Also, she is really in politics for the Democratic Party, not for personal glory. She got this from her father, who was mayor of Baltimore and later congressman from Maryland and her older brother, Thomas, who followed in Dad's footsteps and was also mayor of Baltimore. We seem to have a lot on dynastic politics today. Sorry about that.
If Pelosi calls it quits, she is likely to endorse San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan, with whom she is close. That will give Chan a small edge in the D+36 district. Pelosi's district, CA-11, is tied with GA-05 (downtown Atlanta) as the second-most Democratic district in the country, after PA-03 (Philadelphia), which is D+40. The most Republican district in the country is the R+33 AL-04 district in the northwest part of Alabama, which Donald Trump carried by 67 points. CA-11 is one of the very few districts where a candidate cannot be too progressive to win.
If Pelosi bows out, Chan is not a sure-fire bet though. A lot of Northern California Democrats understand that getting elected in CA-11 is a lifetime job. State Sen. Scott Wiener (D) is one of them and is already readying his campaign. If Pelosi drops out, the dam will break and there will be a lot of candidates, each one claiming to be leftier and more Trump-hating than the others.
If Pelosi retires, the Democratic primary will be a big battleground, but not the only one. The race for governor is also a biggie. Already in are former secretary of HHS Xavier Becerra, former Rep. Katie Porter, former L.A. mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and a few others. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) might run and so might billionaire Tom Steyer. It will be brutal. (V)