Oct.23

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Pennsylvania Will Be a House Battleground Next Year

There are a number of House districts in California and New York that will be bitterly fought over in the midterms. Much has been written about them. However, Pennsylvania has flown under the radar, even though it has three competitive districts, all occupied by Republicans. Let's take a look.

Here are the Pennsylvania districts in the range R+5 to D+5.

In all the 2024 races, the Republican benefited from Donald Trump's coattails. That option won't be available in 2026 and voters who turned out primarily to vote for Trump may not turn out next year. On the other hand, the popular governor, Josh Shapiro (D-PA), will be on the ballot, and marginal Democrats who like him may turn out specifically to vote for him.

• PA-08 (Bresnahan): This one is stuffed with white working-class voters, who are now Republicans. It used to be a coal-mining district and the demand for its main product is not doing so well. The race could end up hinging on something typically not on the radar for that kind of voter: insider trading. Bresnahan has reported over 600 individual stock trades this year. For someone with a full-time job, that seems like a lot of attention to the stock market. People are wondering if he has been trading based on inside information. Reporters have asked him why he can't just pause trading. He said then he would go broke. That is pure B.S. He could buy an ETF for the S&P 500 and then leave it on autopilot. The Democratic establishment wants the candidate to be Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. Her slogan is "Paige against the machine," which will focus on corruption and put Bresnahan's stock trades front and center. Nevertheless, she will have a primary to get through first.
  
  
• PA-10 (Perry): Scott Perry used to be chairman of the House Freedom Caucus. The district used to be redder, but a court ordered it redistricted in 2018 and it is now competitive. Perry is considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country. His strong arguments to get rid of the ACA and its subsidies will be a big issue. In 2024, Perry beat former news anchor Janelle Stelson by 5,133 votes and she is back for a rematch, but without Trump on the ticket this time. However, she has competition from another Democrat, progressive Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas. The governor and Democratic establishment are backing Stelson.
  
  
• PA-07 (MacKenzie): This is a true toss-up. Democrat Susan Wild held it for three terms until losing narrowly to MacKenzie. He will be a top target for the Democrats. Local Democrats understand that. Five of them have filed to run in the primary. They are state firefighters' union president Bob Brooks, former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, utility company director Carol Obando-Derstine and Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley. Brooks will have support from union leaders and members. He is also likely to be Shapiro's favorite. Obando-Derstine has the support of Wild, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and EMILY's List. Despite this, she has not been a strong fundraiser so far. Incumbent MacKenzie is an even worse fundraiser, not a good place to be in a potential blue wave, but the cycle is young and outside money will probably (try to) come to his rescue.

The other two incumbents in the table, Fitzpatrick and Deluzio are personally popular, so despite the close PVIs, the election results weren't close at all last time, and they are considered safe. The battles will be in the other three districts.

In a blue wave, the Democrats could pick up as many as three seats in Pennsylvania, which will go a ways toward canceling some of the gerrymandering going on. (V)