Dem
47
GOP
53
When the BBC asked Kamala Harris about a presidential run Saturday, she said: "I have lived my entire career as a life of service and it's in my bones." When specifically asked if she could be the first woman in charge of the White House, she said: "possibly." No quotes from William Tecumseh Sherman here.
Yup. It is a tough job but somebody has to do it. Harris is willing to sacrifice everything and run again. What a patriotic person. The country is surely grateful.
Except she's out of her mind if she thinks she can even get the Democratic nomination. Democrats are desperate to win and she is the only candidate who has lost a presidential election. Democrats need to win more white voters and running a Black woman who has already lost once probably isn't the key when a dozen or more perfectly capable white guys are going to be running.
What's her base? Black women? Probably not, because they know if she runs again and loses again, the Democrats will not nominate another Black woman for at least a generation. Latinos? She'll have to convince them that she will do more for them than an actual Latino, like Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). Working-class white men? Are you kidding? Will progressives pick Harris over AOC? No, if they had choice, but it's moot because AOC is not going to run for president. She is a strong favorite to knock off Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) for the Senate and she surely has seen those polls. She's young and can easily run from the Senate in 2032 or 2036. Govs. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and Josh Shapiro (D-PA) are probably progressive enough for the lefties and might actually be able to win the general election, which really matters this time. Shapiro will have the edge over Newsom with them because he is from the biggest swing state and close to Wisconsin and Michigan. He could get independent votes and actually win. Gay people? Not if Pete Buttigieg runs. Moderate white men? With Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Roy Cooper available, they are not going to vote for Harris in the primary. She has no base.
There is also a more technical issue: delegates. Primaries are about winning delegates and California has the motherlode. So she'll clean up on Super Tuesday? Uh, no. There is going to be another candidate from California in the race. Best case is she splits the California delegates evenly. More likely Newsom, who is out there taunting Trump all day long, gets the lion's share of the California delegates. Harris is kidding herself if she thinks she has a chance. She should have run for governor of California. That was a very winnable race. But keep reading. (V)