Oct.27

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Blinded by the Light

The founding parents thought Congress would be the most important part of the federal government. That is why it is described in Article I of the Constitution. And they further thought the People's House would be the driving force, making the speaker of the House the only government official specifically referenced in the Constitution other than the president and vice president. And indeed, there have been powerful speakers, especially Joe Cannon and Sam Rayburn. The Senate was there to calm the passions of the House. Its leader isn't even named in the Constitution. In the Founders' view, Speaker Mike Johnson would be an abject failure, since he is doing his level best to marginalize Congress, the House, and even his own power. Putting the House under the thumb of the president definitely was not the game plan.

The presidency has become so powerful in recent years, especially now, that the Executive Branch—and specifically, what is left of the White House—is now the most powerful part of the government, although the Supreme Court is a close second. Is it then surprising that so many ambitious politicians dream of being president now? What surprises us about them is that so many of them turn down excellent chances to obtain high positions for a small chance at becoming president. This speaks to probability theory not being well taught in high school. (V) is not a gambler and would never buy a ticket where there was only one prize of $1.8 billion, but might be tempted by a lottery with 1 million winners of $1,800 each. The total payout is the same, but the chances of winning are a whole lot bigger. Politicians don't think like that. In other professions, people can think big but are often willing to accept something other than the top prize. If a junior vice president at a firm with a gross revenue of $200 billion is offered a job as CEO of a company with a gross revenue of $50 billion, he or she will probably take it rather than holding out for the unlikely event of making it to the top without switching companies. It is not as "good" as being CEO of a $200 billion firm, but it is still pretty important. Politicians aren't like that. Let's look at some examples (in alphabetical order):

• Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY): Sen. Mitch McTurtle (R-KY) is retiring. Beshear has won statewide elections three times in Kentucky and is term-limited and out of a job in Jan. 2027. In most cases, a popular sitting governor with a history of winning statewide who ran for an open Senate seat would be the favorite, no matter how red or blue the state was. After all, having won statewide three times ends the "electability" discussion right there. But no, Beshear is eyeing the big chair, not a lifetime job in the Senate. Beshear is only 47, so in 20 years he would be 67 and possibly chairman of a powerful committee, a job he might be able to hold for another 20 years. But the small chance of being elected president in 2028 is too great to resist.
  
  
• Pete Buttigieg: The 2020 presidential candidate was formerly mayor of a town of 100,000 in Indiana but he sees himself as presidential material. He moved to Michigan where his husband is from. Next year there are open seats for both governor of Michigan and senator for Michigan. He is not interested in either job, even though he would probably be the favorite in either race. Running as a gay man for president is going to be problematic, and he is smart enough to know that. Being gay is not an obstacle to being governor (see Polis, Jared) or senator (see Baldwin, Tammy). Still, he is hypnotized into trying to get a job that he almost certainly won't get rather than accept one of two other important jobs where he would be the favorite.
  
  
• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL): We know DeSantis wants to be president so badly he can taste it. He ran in 2024 and was wiped out. He has a tin ear that no hearing aid can fix. There is no open Senate seat in Florida in 2026, but Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) is up in a special election because he appointed her after Marco Rubio resigned. Appointed senators don't have a great track record and DeSantis could have decided to run against her in the primary and would probably have won. But he is deluding himself into thinking a 2.4% chance of winning the top job (according to the betting site Paddy Power) is better than probably even odds of being elected to the Senate.
  
  
• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA): This one is different from all the others. MTG is not openly semi-campaigning for president. Nevertheless, she is one of the best known Republican politicians in the country, and is probably better tuned in to what MAGA voters want than any other elected Republican, with no exceptions. Georgia has an open seat for governor next year but she declined to enter that race. Maybe she doesn't actually like governing. Fine, but the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate, Jon Ossoff (D-GA), is up next year, so she could have run for the Republican nomination, where she would probably have been the favorite. Again, no. She is apparently keeping her powder dry for a potential shot at the national ticket in 2028, possibly even Vance/Greene '28.
  
  
• Kamala Harris: See the item above. She would definitely be the favorite for governor of California, but she has been bitten by the presidential bug. Paddy Power has her chances of being elected president at 1.5%, even lower than DeSantis'. The governorship of the most populous and richest state in the country was likely hers for the taking, but she is only interested in the job she probably can't have.
  
  
• Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA): Same as MTG, except his chances at getting the Republican nomination are greater than hers. Unlike MTG, Kemp can't run for governor in 2026 because he is term limited, but if he went for the nomination to oppose Ossoff, he would be a shoo-in to get the nomination and probably have an even chance to win the Senate seat in reddish-purple Georgia. But no. He's got Potomac fever, even though he lives 600 miles from the Potomac.
  
  
• Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL): As fate would have it, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) is retiring, so running for his seat would be the obvious move for the popular sitting governor of Illinois. He would almost be a shoo-in for the Senate in deep-blue Illinois. While he is currently popular with Democrats, he doesn't have much charisma and the lane for "biggest Trump hater in town" has been grabbed by the governor of California. He seems a very unlikely winner. Paddy Power has him at 2.9%.
  
  
• Chris Sununu: As a popular four-term former governor of New Hampshire, he would have been the overwhelming favorite to get the GOP nomination for the open Senate seat in the Granite State and the favorite against Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) in the general election. But he passed, in the hope of making it to the White House. What's his base nationally? Normie Republicans? No Democrat will vote for him and many MAGA Republicans might sit it out rather than vote for him. But nope, he's not willing to accept a mere Senate seat. Better to lose the GOP nomination than win a Senate seat.
  
  
• Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA): This one is the most rational of all the above. There is a Senate race in Virginia in 2026, but it is against Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), who would be a strong opponent. Youngkin would be a complete shoo-in to get the Republican nomination, but beating Warner would not be so easy. Still, for a Republican who is not MAGA to get the GOP presidential nomination will also not be easy. At least Youngkin seems to have made a rational decision, since winning the alternative race would have been an uphill battle.
  

In case you are curious who the top five in the Paddy Power list are, they are J.D. Vance (30.8%), Gavin Newsom (20%), AOC (7.7%), Gov. Josh Shapiro (4.8%), and Donald Trump Jr. (3.8%). But these odds primarily reflect name recognition at the moment. (V)